***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 15.3 7.2 84.0 69.2 51.9 2.4 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 12.2 6.8 73.6 62.0 49.5 2.1 4.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.4 18.9 7.3 91.3 72.2 54.3 2.1 6.8 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 20.8 8.8 116.0 72.6 58.6 1.9 6.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.0 21.7 9.2 125.1 75.7 58.3 2.6 7.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.4 17.4 13.8 128.6 73.3 58.6 0.8 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.7 10.0 6.4 65.7 59.5 47.6 2.3 5.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.3 44.9 12.7 150.4 77.4 60.0 5.5 14.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 18.8 21.0 9.7 130.7 75.4 61.2 6.5 10.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.1 26.9 12.4 137.3 74.7 59.6 7.4 11.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.7 19.3 9.1 151.2 78.1 61.0 4.4 7.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 22.2 9.2 158.3 78.5 61.0 2.4 7.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.9 30.0 10.0 134.4 76.7 58.3 1.0 5.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.1 29.7 11.4 105.1 74.8 60.4 8.6 14.2 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.4 7.8 7.6 115.7 73.7 55.9 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.0 17.4 9.2 141.7 76.8 59.5 1.0 6.4 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.1 6.8 67.1 59.5 48.7 4.0 10.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.4 13.8 14.4 131.3 74.1 59.9 5.5 8.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 16.1 7.0 79.5 65.2 51.5 4.0 6.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.1 25.8 17.0 141.5 74.3 59.6 11.8 14.7 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.6 30.3 8.0 117.9 76.2 60.0 3.4 8.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.7 16.2 7.4 74.0 62.7 48.4 4.1 10.1 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.0 24.2 7.5 87.2 71.1 56.4 3.8 8.8 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.7 22.6 11.4 115.7 74.2 60.0 6.7 8.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.3 17.5 9.0 98.2 68.2 53.6 3.5 6.8 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.8 25.4 7.9 137.6 78.2 58.8 0.5 5.6 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.7 8.5 83.4 65.8 51.0 2.6 7.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 14.2 8.8 124.2 73.9 57.9 1.1 4.1 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.3 31.3 14.8 131.3 74.5 59.9 8.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.9 7.4 6.8 75.7 65.0 50.1 1.8 3.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------