***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 1.0 1.0 1.1 11.2 33.6 28.8 1.0 2.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 0.6 0.3 1.1 10.6 30.4 23.5 0.6 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 0.6 0.6 0.9 10.1 31.1 26.0 0.9 3.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 0.9 1.6 14.9 34.4 32.2 0.8 4.2 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 0.6 0.2 1.1 10.5 27.4 22.7 0.8 2.6 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 2.2 2.9 2.0 18.7 38.5 28.7 1.9 6.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 0.5 0.5 1.0 9.3 29.9 23.4 0.8 2.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.6 3.3 30.9 44.2 37.7 4.4 7.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 1.6 0.3 1.3 12.8 31.1 27.9 0.8 6.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 2.8 2.4 2.5 20.0 34.2 30.5 2.4 10.0 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.1 1.5 14.6 39.3 32.6 0.8 4.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.5 2.6 2.2 25.3 44.7 37.8 0.3 3.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.6 1.3 1.9 19.7 35.2 28.8 0.9 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.7 9.2 3.3 27.2 39.8 31.9 5.4 11.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.0 10.3 31.1 25.6 0.6 2.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 0.9 0.5 1.4 14.5 35.8 28.1 0.5 2.7 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 1.0 1.9 1.2 11.8 34.5 24.8 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 3.2 2.2 3.0 23.3 34.3 29.2 2.0 7.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 0.9 2.0 1.1 11.1 33.5 26.6 1.9 3.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.1 5.2 41.6 42.7 37.5 4.0 4.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 1.5 0.1 1.0 10.6 30.5 28.4 0.9 7.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 0.9 1.8 1.7 17.1 36.8 25.7 1.6 4.1 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.4 1.2 12.7 39.3 31.3 1.0 4.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 3.4 4.3 2.2 18.5 33.8 29.0 3.8 10.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 1.5 0.6 1.3 11.8 26.3 24.0 2.9 8.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.3 3.9 3.2 30.1 43.8 35.6 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 1.4 1.3 1.2 11.4 31.0 26.5 1.5 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 1.0 1.2 1.1 11.6 33.3 26.8 1.2 3.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.9 4.7 3.7 30.1 37.7 32.7 4.6 8.4 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 0.5 0.3 1.0 9.6 27.3 22.8 1.4 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------