***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 29.3 30.8 31.3 3.1 92.5 87.3 26.7 27.3 28.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 28.7 30.2 31.6 3.0 92.1 86.4 26.6 27.4 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 29.0 30.0 31.1 2.7 88.2 83.4 26.6 27.3 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 22.6 23.3 28.9 2.4 87.6 81.5 20.0 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 30.2 31.1 29.1 2.4 87.0 82.0 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 28.3 29.0 26.5 2.0 81.8 78.6 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 28.6 30.1 31.6 3.3 93.6 88.9 26.1 27.2 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 17.9 19.1 27.3 2.4 88.3 82.2 15.5 16.5 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 29.5 30.5 29.8 2.7 90.1 84.6 26.6 27.5 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 29.3 30.3 28.2 2.7 89.8 84.6 26.3 27.5 28.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 30.1 30.8 28.6 2.4 86.9 81.4 27.0 27.7 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 29.0 30.4 28.3 2.3 86.8 80.4 26.4 27.3 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 30.0 31.1 27.8 2.0 85.0 78.3 27.8 28.0 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 28.9 29.9 29.0 2.5 87.4 82.9 26.4 27.2 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 29.9 31.0 30.1 2.8 91.4 85.7 27.5 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 30.5 31.8 28.3 2.1 84.1 78.3 28.4 28.8 29.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 28.0 29.2 30.9 2.8 90.2 85.3 25.8 26.7 27.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 28.3 29.1 27.2 2.5 88.2 82.7 25.6 26.4 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 28.5 30.2 31.5 3.0 91.3 85.5 26.1 26.9 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 24.3 25.3 24.7 1.8 84.5 76.5 21.7 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 29.8 30.5 30.6 2.7 89.5 83.9 26.6 27.3 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 28.4 29.4 30.7 2.6 88.9 83.9 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 28.7 29.9 31.1 2.9 90.8 85.4 26.3 27.3 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 28.6 29.8 29.0 2.5 87.4 82.7 26.1 26.8 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 29.5 31.1 29.7 2.9 92.3 86.3 26.8 27.5 28.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 29.4 30.2 27.5 1.7 79.2 73.5 27.2 28.2 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 29.0 30.2 30.5 3.2 92.9 88.5 26.3 27.4 28.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 29.8 30.9 29.4 2.4 87.5 80.9 27.5 28.3 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.9 24.8 26.1 2.3 87.1 81.2 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 28.9 29.9 31.7 3.1 91.2 86.4 26.4 27.1 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------