***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 26.8 26.0 27.9 1.3 64.8 60.5 23.6 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.9 27.9 1.0 62.1 58.6 23.1 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.0 27.7 1.0 62.2 58.0 23.1 25.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.3 18.7 26.0 0.9 61.9 57.7 16.8 17.7 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.1 25.9 0.9 61.0 57.6 23.9 25.4 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.1 23.9 0.9 60.3 57.9 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.5 27.8 1.2 62.4 59.4 22.6 25.6 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.5 24.5 1.1 63.7 59.2 12.5 13.6 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.2 26.4 1.1 63.3 58.9 23.2 25.2 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.5 25.1 1.1 64.1 59.2 23.3 24.5 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.9 25.6 1.0 61.3 58.5 23.5 25.1 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.8 25.5 1.0 61.7 58.7 23.5 24.0 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.0 24.9 0.8 59.0 56.9 24.4 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.1 25.7 0.9 62.0 57.1 23.1 25.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.4 26.7 1.2 64.8 60.7 24.6 25.6 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.6 26.7 25.4 0.8 58.4 56.9 24.7 25.9 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 25.6 25.5 27.2 0.8 59.5 56.5 22.2 25.1 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 22.6 25.2 24.2 1.0 64.1 57.6 22.3 24.6 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.3 27.9 1.0 62.1 58.5 22.5 25.5 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.0 21.0 21.9 0.7 61.1 55.8 18.8 19.4 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.6 27.2 1.0 61.6 58.6 23.2 25.2 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.2 27.1 0.8 60.4 56.6 22.4 25.6 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.3 27.6 1.0 63.3 58.7 23.0 25.5 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.6 25.7 25.8 0.9 62.7 57.5 22.6 25.2 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 26.8 26.0 26.2 1.2 63.7 60.0 24.1 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.4 25.0 0.6 59.6 55.2 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 26.7 26.7 27.0 1.3 65.4 61.2 23.1 25.3 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.3 26.6 26.3 0.9 60.9 57.9 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 17.8 20.6 23.1 0.9 63.1 56.9 17.4 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.4 28.1 1.1 63.0 59.2 22.5 25.5 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------