***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 28.2 28.2 30.4 2.0 70.8 67.7 26.3 27.0 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 28.0 27.9 30.3 1.7 66.8 64.5 25.4 26.8 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.4 27.5 30.0 1.5 62.9 62.9 26.1 26.9 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 21.4 21.2 28.5 1.6 69.3 65.3 19.6 20.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 28.0 28.8 28.4 1.5 65.8 64.4 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.5 26.3 1.5 72.2 66.4 26.1 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 27.9 27.9 30.4 2.0 69.6 67.0 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.3 26.8 1.5 67.5 65.3 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.9 28.7 1.6 66.1 65.1 26.5 27.1 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.5 28.2 27.4 1.6 67.2 65.5 26.6 27.2 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 28.1 28.6 28.0 1.5 67.0 65.3 26.7 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 27.7 28.4 27.9 1.5 68.2 65.1 26.4 27.4 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 28.4 29.3 27.3 1.3 68.4 64.0 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 27.4 27.6 27.7 1.1 59.9 59.3 25.4 26.9 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 29.2 29.4 29.3 2.0 75.3 70.0 27.0 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.3 27.7 1.3 66.4 63.8 27.4 29.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 27.5 26.9 29.6 1.5 66.0 62.9 24.9 26.1 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.8 27.1 26.3 1.3 63.8 62.4 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.0 27.3 30.3 1.6 64.8 63.2 25.5 26.5 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 23.0 23.4 24.1 0.9 58.7 59.7 21.7 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.9 29.5 1.5 64.3 64.4 26.4 27.1 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.2 27.5 29.4 1.3 62.8 61.1 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.7 29.8 1.5 63.1 62.4 25.3 27.2 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.1 27.2 27.9 1.2 61.9 61.4 25.7 26.6 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 28.3 28.5 28.7 1.9 70.3 67.9 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 28.2 28.9 27.2 1.1 64.5 61.6 27.1 27.7 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 28.2 28.5 29.6 2.1 72.6 69.5 26.0 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 29.2 29.2 28.9 1.7 70.9 66.2 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.8 25.2 1.1 62.2 61.0 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 27.8 27.9 30.5 1.8 67.2 65.3 25.5 26.6 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------