***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 31.6 33.2 32.6 3.5 88.3 82.3 28.2 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 31.1 32.6 33.0 3.5 88.2 81.9 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 30.9 31.6 32.3 3.0 83.7 79.1 27.7 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 25.0 25.6 30.3 2.7 81.2 78.7 21.3 23.1 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 32.0 32.5 30.2 2.6 79.7 77.5 28.8 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 30.6 31.1 27.7 2.3 80.1 76.8 27.1 29.5 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 30.7 32.7 33.0 3.7 91.0 83.6 27.6 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 19.9 20.6 28.4 2.6 83.1 77.1 15.9 18.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 30.9 31.8 30.7 2.9 82.8 79.3 27.9 29.7 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 31.1 32.3 29.3 2.8 84.3 78.7 27.1 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 31.6 31.9 29.6 2.6 79.3 77.3 28.0 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 31.1 31.5 29.4 2.5 79.3 76.0 26.8 29.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 31.9 31.8 28.7 2.2 74.5 74.3 28.2 30.7 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 30.3 30.8 30.0 2.7 83.2 76.6 27.0 29.5 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 32.0 33.2 31.1 3.1 89.0 83.0 28.4 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 32.5 32.7 29.2 2.3 75.0 74.8 28.9 31.5 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 30.1 31.4 32.3 3.2 87.2 80.3 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 29.8 30.3 28.3 2.6 82.7 76.1 26.1 28.6 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 30.8 31.9 32.8 3.3 86.5 81.0 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 26.5 26.8 25.7 2.0 77.5 71.4 21.8 25.1 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 31.0 32.0 31.6 2.9 83.3 79.4 27.6 29.3 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 30.6 31.2 32.0 2.9 84.0 78.7 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 30.5 31.5 32.3 3.2 85.5 80.5 27.3 29.0 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 30.4 31.3 30.1 2.7 83.6 77.1 26.8 29.0 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 31.2 33.0 30.9 3.3 87.4 82.4 27.7 29.9 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 31.4 31.5 28.5 1.8 72.9 70.7 27.9 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 30.9 33.3 31.8 3.6 89.3 83.9 27.6 29.2 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 32.1 33.0 30.6 2.7 82.0 78.7 28.8 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 25.4 25.9 27.1 2.4 81.1 74.7 21.3 24.3 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 31.1 32.6 33.0 3.5 88.3 82.0 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------