***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 31.8 35.0 34.5 5.8 98.9 98.1 28.0 29.1 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 31.4 34.4 35.2 6.0 98.2 97.2 28.4 29.2 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 31.6 33.7 34.2 5.2 97.4 95.9 28.2 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 25.5 26.1 30.9 4.5 92.2 91.8 20.5 21.5 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 33.3 34.3 32.0 4.8 94.6 93.0 28.6 29.3 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 31.6 31.8 28.0 3.2 85.0 85.0 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 30.6 34.2 35.4 6.4 99.2 98.4 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 20.2 21.5 29.6 4.4 93.8 92.8 16.4 17.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 32.3 34.2 33.2 5.2 98.1 95.7 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 31.9 34.0 31.3 5.1 97.7 96.0 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 32.5 33.5 31.3 4.4 92.5 91.5 27.9 29.0 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 31.9 32.3 30.4 4.1 90.7 90.5 27.0 28.0 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 33.2 33.5 30.3 3.8 89.7 89.2 28.1 28.9 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 31.3 34.0 32.6 5.3 97.6 96.7 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 32.4 35.3 33.3 4.9 96.7 95.3 28.8 29.3 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 34.1 34.4 30.8 4.0 89.9 89.4 28.7 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 30.4 33.3 34.5 5.8 97.3 96.6 27.7 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 30.4 33.0 30.2 5.0 97.6 96.2 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 31.1 34.3 35.0 5.9 98.2 97.1 27.6 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 27.2 28.0 27.0 3.7 91.6 90.3 22.3 23.5 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 31.9 33.9 34.0 5.2 97.1 95.7 28.2 28.8 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 30.9 33.5 34.3 5.6 95.5 95.7 28.4 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 31.2 34.7 34.6 5.9 99.1 97.5 28.2 28.7 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 30.9 33.4 32.3 5.1 97.8 96.5 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 32.2 35.1 32.9 5.4 98.4 97.2 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 32.6 32.7 29.2 3.2 82.3 83.3 27.8 28.9 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 31.2 34.7 33.8 5.8 99.0 98.4 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 32.4 34.3 31.7 4.2 91.3 90.8 28.3 29.2 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 26.4 28.5 29.1 4.7 97.0 95.4 22.0 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 31.2 34.4 35.1 5.9 98.6 97.4 27.7 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------