***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.3 17.2 0.9 65.3 60.7 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.3 17.0 0.8 61.6 59.8 12.0 12.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.5 16.9 0.7 61.6 58.8 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.3 14.9 0.7 61.2 60.5 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.0 14.5 0.7 61.5 60.7 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.4 11.4 12.9 0.9 69.4 63.2 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.6 17.1 0.9 64.8 61.2 12.3 13.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 6.7 6.9 12.8 0.9 66.7 63.4 5.4 5.8 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.3 14.8 0.8 59.5 61.8 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.2 12.9 13.3 0.8 62.9 62.7 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.2 14.0 0.8 65.2 62.9 11.7 12.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 11.7 11.5 13.8 0.9 66.5 63.5 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.6 13.1 0.8 65.3 62.3 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.1 14.7 0.6 57.6 58.5 12.6 13.6 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.8 16.0 1.0 69.0 64.7 12.9 13.6 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.7 13.8 0.8 65.4 62.1 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.7 16.2 0.5 58.3 57.2 12.4 13.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.9 12.7 0.8 62.9 61.2 10.5 11.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.4 16.9 0.7 61.4 59.6 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.2 10.8 0.6 62.4 58.4 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.8 16.1 0.7 61.0 59.9 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 12.9 12.9 16.1 0.5 59.0 56.8 11.8 12.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.3 16.6 0.7 63.4 60.1 11.4 13.1 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.2 14.7 0.7 61.1 59.8 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.4 15.6 0.8 61.2 61.0 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.2 13.3 0.7 58.3 59.4 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.4 16.4 1.0 65.3 62.3 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 12.3 12.4 15.3 0.8 64.1 62.1 10.6 11.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.8 12.1 0.8 63.8 61.6 9.2 9.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.6 17.3 0.8 64.0 60.2 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------