***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.8 19.3 1.5 77.7 70.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 15.4 16.2 19.1 1.4 74.6 68.4 13.5 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 16.5 17.7 18.9 1.2 70.3 67.0 15.3 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 12.5 12.6 17.0 1.2 71.6 68.3 10.8 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.0 14.5 16.5 1.1 72.8 67.8 12.3 13.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.0 12.8 14.6 1.0 71.9 68.2 11.8 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 15.5 16.3 19.3 1.6 77.2 70.8 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 8.5 8.8 14.7 1.3 76.5 71.8 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.8 16.8 1.3 74.9 70.1 13.4 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 14.8 15.1 15.2 1.3 76.1 70.8 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 14.6 14.6 16.0 1.2 71.6 69.1 12.7 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.4 15.7 1.3 75.6 71.8 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 13.9 14.1 14.9 1.1 70.7 69.7 12.4 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.9 16.2 16.6 1.0 71.7 66.4 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.6 17.9 1.5 78.8 73.1 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 14.8 15.3 15.7 1.0 67.5 67.2 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 15.7 16.1 18.2 1.1 72.7 64.6 13.8 14.4 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.9 14.5 1.1 74.9 69.3 11.7 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.9 19.0 1.3 72.4 67.9 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 9.6 9.6 12.5 0.8 66.5 65.3 7.8 8.6 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 15.0 15.2 18.1 1.2 72.8 68.9 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.9 15.0 18.1 1.0 70.8 63.8 12.9 13.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 14.1 15.0 18.6 1.3 73.2 68.2 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.8 16.5 1.1 72.0 67.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.9 15.4 17.8 1.5 79.5 72.3 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.2 15.1 1.0 71.2 67.9 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.7 18.5 1.6 81.3 73.2 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 13.8 14.0 17.3 1.2 71.6 68.5 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.8 13.8 1.1 73.7 69.5 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 15.7 16.5 19.4 1.4 74.4 69.2 13.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------