***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 16.8 18.1 21.1 2.8 92.2 88.8 14.7 15.5 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 17.0 18.3 21.2 2.8 91.0 87.3 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 19.1 20.1 20.7 2.4 89.2 86.3 17.1 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 15.4 16.4 18.3 2.1 88.0 83.5 12.3 13.2 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 15.3 15.6 17.9 2.1 87.4 83.4 12.8 13.6 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 13.9 14.5 15.9 1.8 84.3 80.6 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 17.2 18.6 21.4 3.0 93.5 89.2 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 9.9 11.1 16.2 2.3 87.0 85.5 7.5 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 16.3 16.7 18.5 2.4 90.5 86.8 13.7 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 15.9 16.6 16.9 2.4 88.5 86.4 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 15.4 15.6 17.4 2.2 86.3 83.3 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 13.5 14.0 17.1 2.2 87.0 84.6 11.7 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 14.6 15.1 16.0 1.7 84.6 80.6 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 16.9 17.6 18.4 2.2 90.1 86.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 17.2 18.0 19.3 2.3 90.7 86.1 14.8 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 16.5 16.8 16.9 1.8 83.8 80.7 14.3 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 17.1 18.1 20.2 2.4 90.4 84.0 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 14.6 15.5 16.2 2.3 90.8 87.6 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 16.7 17.5 21.0 2.7 89.4 87.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 10.1 10.3 13.9 1.7 83.1 80.4 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 16.2 16.9 19.8 2.5 89.5 86.7 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 15.8 16.8 20.1 2.3 87.8 83.7 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 16.0 17.3 20.6 2.7 90.4 88.3 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 16.2 17.0 18.3 2.3 90.3 87.5 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 16.5 17.7 19.3 2.6 92.9 89.2 14.2 14.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 14.7 15.5 16.0 1.5 82.4 78.7 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 17.6 18.8 20.3 2.9 93.3 90.4 14.3 15.9 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 14.8 15.4 18.7 2.1 87.5 83.0 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 14.4 15.8 15.5 2.3 90.2 87.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 17.4 18.5 21.4 2.8 91.3 88.0 14.7 15.4 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------