***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 16.6 19.2 21.8 3.7 98.5 97.9 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 16.5 18.4 21.2 3.2 98.5 96.8 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.3 20.9 21.1 2.9 97.2 96.1 17.2 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 15.0 17.0 18.6 2.7 91.9 91.3 12.9 13.2 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 15.5 17.1 18.6 2.4 90.9 90.1 13.4 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 14.2 14.4 15.7 1.8 83.1 82.3 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.6 19.1 22.1 4.1 99.9 98.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 10.3 12.1 16.2 2.2 90.7 89.6 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.7 17.9 19.9 3.2 97.1 96.7 15.1 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 16.8 17.4 17.4 2.6 94.8 93.9 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 16.4 16.5 17.7 1.9 86.6 85.7 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 14.3 14.5 16.8 1.9 85.8 84.7 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.5 15.6 0.8 70.4 68.0 13.4 14.6 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 17.0 18.0 18.7 2.3 94.1 92.5 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.7 18.1 20.2 2.4 90.2 89.2 15.9 16.2 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 16.8 17.0 16.8 1.3 78.6 76.4 15.1 16.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 17.2 18.4 20.5 3.1 97.7 96.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 15.0 15.8 16.0 2.0 89.5 89.0 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 16.6 18.3 21.2 3.3 98.7 97.3 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 10.7 10.9 13.8 1.7 85.1 85.4 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.5 17.8 21.1 3.2 96.9 96.0 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 16.2 17.0 20.9 3.2 96.2 95.6 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 16.2 17.1 21.4 3.5 99.1 98.4 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 16.7 18.2 18.4 2.2 93.8 92.3 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 16.5 18.0 20.3 3.0 95.3 94.8 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 15.4 15.3 15.3 1.1 74.3 73.0 14.0 14.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 16.6 19.2 20.9 3.4 97.2 96.7 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 15.3 15.9 18.9 2.3 87.9 87.1 13.0 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 14.4 15.1 15.3 1.9 89.2 88.3 12.4 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.1 18.5 21.8 3.6 99.3 98.0 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------