***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 27.6 48.3 34.8 91.9 54.3 44.8 25.1 43.7 59.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 29.0 61.0 35.8 101.2 64.5 49.5 23.8 41.5 61.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 30.4 47.8 33.8 89.2 51.5 43.4 30.7 47.0 66.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 32.9 50.5 30.5 82.1 51.1 41.1 37.5 50.3 58.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 24.4 39.0 32.6 90.0 56.0 43.9 28.4 37.5 51.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 29.1 38.1 31.0 76.1 43.5 38.5 32.1 39.6 44.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 42.6 48.3 35.7 104.6 63.8 52.6 21.8 36.9 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 73.5 67.7 34.6 86.6 51.5 45.1 45.7 66.8 90.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 30.3 47.3 34.3 88.8 53.7 43.4 27.2 43.9 60.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 40.1 50.3 37.6 86.7 51.7 43.7 41.1 50.0 59.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 45.4 45.8 30.0 85.3 55.4 43.1 33.7 41.8 51.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 43.2 41.2 28.0 85.9 50.9 44.7 34.8 40.1 46.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 44.3 39.2 28.9 85.1 49.9 42.0 29.1 39.3 46.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 42.6 51.7 40.7 84.3 44.3 42.4 43.2 58.6 67.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 21.2 34.7 26.6 81.9 51.2 41.3 18.3 34.7 39.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 46.3 41.5 28.3 84.4 50.1 41.8 34.4 41.5 46.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 31.2 53.2 37.2 106.1 63.4 53.2 29.7 44.3 54.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 39.8 42.8 39.3 80.1 48.4 41.4 40.1 43.5 48.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 27.3 59.3 35.9 95.4 61.3 47.0 32.1 43.0 63.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 43.7 60.6 40.2 85.4 51.1 43.2 50.2 59.3 70.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 26.6 52.1 33.5 90.9 55.3 43.6 26.3 40.7 65.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 37.0 50.3 38.3 98.3 55.0 49.1 37.2 49.3 57.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 30.8 49.5 35.7 89.2 57.8 44.8 24.2 43.7 54.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 44.3 54.5 37.3 84.8 47.9 42.0 42.1 60.0 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 26.5 39.8 39.2 96.0 54.0 46.9 30.3 36.8 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 25.8 32.1 23.3 80.9 48.7 42.3 26.5 32.8 43.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 34.2 52.3 38.8 94.4 55.3 47.4 25.1 49.7 63.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 24.6 36.0 27.6 81.1 50.9 40.5 29.7 35.5 42.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 54.0 63.2 40.8 80.6 47.0 40.9 57.4 65.3 83.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 28.7 44.8 35.0 98.3 60.9 48.4 22.7 38.6 50.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------