***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 18.0 10.4 121.0 72.9 54.5 3.8 7.2 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.7 18.5 9.0 110.9 70.0 51.8 4.9 12.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.8 21.1 10.1 119.0 74.1 51.7 5.6 13.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.3 24.3 9.5 135.0 75.4 47.3 3.2 7.6 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.7 20.5 9.8 129.6 72.5 49.5 3.3 8.0 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.1 11.6 10.1 117.4 68.4 50.3 2.7 6.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.7 12.9 8.7 115.0 68.2 53.2 5.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.0 26.8 8.9 94.2 64.4 49.5 8.3 17.6 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.6 16.9 10.6 120.8 69.3 49.3 6.9 10.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.9 18.1 10.6 104.2 64.8 48.9 6.1 10.1 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.9 19.9 8.7 116.6 69.3 50.1 4.0 6.9 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.4 20.7 7.3 103.1 68.3 51.3 2.1 10.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.6 24.9 8.7 122.8 73.6 50.9 3.4 9.7 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.6 17.2 11.1 100.3 64.0 46.0 8.1 12.8 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.8 13.9 8.7 148.0 77.0 53.6 0.2 3.6 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.1 21.3 8.9 129.1 73.5 52.1 2.5 6.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.3 8.1 102.6 69.0 53.1 7.5 9.6 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.7 14.3 10.8 95.8 61.8 45.1 4.4 11.7 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.5 18.2 9.3 108.7 70.8 50.6 7.2 11.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 19.7 10.6 93.6 63.8 43.5 9.0 15.9 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.6 13.1 10.3 128.8 71.9 50.3 4.1 6.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.7 18.3 9.3 101.5 68.9 49.3 11.8 14.0 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.6 22.8 9.3 102.6 69.6 48.3 7.2 13.1 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.0 19.8 10.4 110.0 67.5 47.5 5.1 12.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.3 14.9 11.0 127.5 69.1 51.9 1.8 8.9 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.2 17.5 6.4 98.5 70.8 46.6 0.5 6.9 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.4 15.3 11.0 118.3 70.1 54.0 1.5 10.5 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.0 18.3 9.1 145.3 76.4 50.9 2.1 4.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.6 10.9 90.1 60.9 44.9 8.5 17.8 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.0 9.9 117.1 69.7 51.1 5.1 10.2 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------