***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 7.1 94.1 66.4 52.9 0.6 3.1 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 9.6 6.8 78.9 64.8 47.9 1.6 3.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.4 14.8 7.2 84.1 65.9 50.2 2.1 6.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.6 16.6 6.1 84.1 61.7 46.5 1.7 6.5 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 16.3 5.8 80.7 64.6 48.7 1.7 7.4 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.5 9.1 5.4 64.0 56.0 44.5 0.8 5.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.7 9.2 6.9 82.2 63.0 46.7 0.4 3.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.2 23.6 7.1 90.3 66.3 50.0 9.2 18.1 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.6 6.8 84.4 63.1 49.9 3.6 8.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.7 7.5 81.6 62.1 48.6 4.3 11.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.1 14.1 5.0 77.2 65.7 48.2 3.4 8.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.9 10.0 5.7 90.7 65.9 49.9 2.4 5.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.9 12.9 5.0 78.0 63.2 44.2 1.0 8.2 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.2 9.3 79.8 58.1 49.5 5.5 12.9 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.9 9.4 5.1 88.5 68.6 48.4 0.5 1.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.7 11.9 4.5 69.2 61.0 45.7 1.5 5.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.1 17.8 7.6 86.4 64.5 45.5 2.2 4.8 19.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.5 8.1 69.2 55.3 44.8 5.6 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.4 7.0 76.9 62.9 48.4 1.7 8.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 16.1 7.6 71.3 56.7 41.4 9.4 14.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.3 16.9 6.7 85.7 65.4 49.7 1.8 7.7 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.0 17.1 7.6 84.9 63.9 46.7 3.4 6.8 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.5 12.2 7.4 78.0 59.0 49.6 1.4 7.4 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.2 15.0 8.3 75.9 59.5 48.5 4.9 9.0 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.9 17.6 8.1 110.0 68.8 52.5 1.7 6.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.3 19.7 4.4 86.7 68.6 49.8 1.1 5.6 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.8 19.6 8.1 104.8 69.5 53.5 2.9 7.4 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.1 9.6 5.4 79.2 61.0 45.7 0.3 3.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 16.0 8.5 72.0 54.7 46.0 7.4 13.3 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.5 7.7 6.6 81.8 65.7 48.8 1.0 3.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------