***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.5 7.4 7.8 79.0 58.2 38.5 0.5 6.7 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.0 6.9 6.9 69.9 56.4 38.6 1.1 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.2 7.8 7.3 70.6 56.6 35.3 1.3 5.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 0.4 8.3 8.3 77.5 66.8 40.8 0.2 0.9 8.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 0.1 2.0 8.0 75.6 65.5 37.8 0.0 0.3 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 0.4 6.0 8.7 88.8 70.0 39.1 0.0 1.2 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.8 6.2 6.4 72.6 57.0 40.1 0.8 4.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 1.5 13.3 8.4 83.6 65.7 41.2 0.9 4.0 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 0.1 5.4 8.1 80.7 64.7 39.0 0.0 0.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 0.4 9.8 9.2 87.6 66.1 40.2 0.0 1.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 0.2 2.2 8.7 79.2 64.7 36.1 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 0.3 5.9 7.7 83.0 70.0 42.2 0.0 0.6 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 0.0 1.9 7.6 84.4 70.5 34.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 2.4 8.4 8.2 62.9 54.0 35.2 1.0 7.6 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.3 3.3 7.5 74.7 66.0 41.0 0.0 0.7 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 0.1 2.1 8.2 84.6 68.9 38.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 1.5 6.3 6.3 65.8 54.3 36.9 1.4 5.2 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 0.9 6.5 8.8 70.7 60.2 35.2 0.3 3.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 1.3 4.4 7.2 68.1 55.1 38.6 1.6 3.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 2.0 9.1 7.7 67.6 56.2 33.6 0.8 6.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 0.8 3.7 7.7 75.9 62.9 37.1 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 1.5 6.1 6.8 61.0 52.8 34.0 0.7 4.7 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 1.9 7.2 7.3 65.2 54.5 37.2 2.2 6.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 1.1 10.8 8.3 67.9 56.8 34.1 0.6 4.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 0.5 5.2 9.2 83.4 59.7 40.3 0.2 1.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 0.0 1.4 6.6 76.9 63.2 40.4 0.0 0.0 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.0 8.8 82.7 59.7 39.6 3.7 8.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 0.5 6.0 7.4 74.6 67.9 40.1 0.3 1.3 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 1.8 6.4 8.7 65.8 52.3 35.0 0.5 6.1 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.5 6.0 7.1 74.5 59.9 39.2 0.6 4.1 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------