***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.5 9.4 80.3 62.7 48.5 0.3 3.6 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 14.6 18.7 13.2 148.3 74.4 59.7 2.2 4.8 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.4 9.2 88.1 60.6 48.0 1.3 4.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.9 9.6 6.6 54.8 53.4 39.4 1.0 9.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.7 9.0 83.1 59.3 45.7 1.0 4.3 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.3 6.7 48.9 46.9 36.4 1.9 6.3 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 11.8 12.8 13.7 146.5 76.5 62.3 2.3 5.3 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 15.6 10.2 83.4 59.2 44.7 1.6 10.5 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.8 9.8 8.8 75.1 58.4 44.6 1.8 5.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 11.0 10.3 77.7 58.9 44.4 4.7 9.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.2 13.2 7.6 77.1 59.7 44.0 2.4 6.8 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.8 10.5 7.3 75.4 58.8 43.2 1.6 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.2 7.7 66.4 57.0 42.7 0.7 4.8 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.3 12.1 97.8 62.4 51.6 4.8 11.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.5 7.1 5.4 50.0 55.0 39.7 0.4 3.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.1 6.7 65.0 54.1 42.5 0.4 4.5 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 12.4 15.8 15.2 173.6 79.3 65.2 4.3 6.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.3 12.9 11.7 84.5 59.1 47.2 4.3 8.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 12.2 12.5 132.2 70.9 56.8 2.3 3.5 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.9 14.3 14.2 106.3 62.0 51.7 3.3 6.3 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.6 8.8 81.2 57.4 46.1 1.3 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.1 15.9 14.6 151.7 77.5 62.2 4.1 7.3 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.2 10.6 11.6 115.1 68.8 54.8 1.0 3.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.3 17.7 10.3 91.3 60.7 47.2 3.7 12.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.2 10.9 79.2 62.1 47.9 0.6 7.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.2 6.0 68.8 55.9 42.8 0.0 4.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.9 10.9 81.8 63.3 50.1 0.8 4.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.2 4.5 5.7 52.0 53.3 39.4 1.1 3.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.9 12.7 94.9 58.9 50.3 4.5 14.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.2 11.4 120.3 69.7 56.6 2.9 5.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------