***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.2 27.3 -0.9 38.5 39.1 27.1 27.4 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.8 27.3 -1.1 35.1 36.4 26.8 27.5 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.2 27.8 -0.7 41.5 42.3 26.9 27.5 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 21.5 21.2 26.1 -0.1 49.0 50.2 20.2 21.2 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 28.8 28.3 26.4 -0.5 42.7 44.9 28.1 28.4 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.0 27.9 24.4 0.0 53.1 51.8 26.7 27.7 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 26.6 26.5 27.3 -1.1 34.0 35.8 26.5 27.3 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 17.3 16.6 24.4 -0.5 43.4 44.8 15.8 17.0 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 28.1 27.5 26.7 -0.4 44.5 45.9 27.1 27.7 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 28.1 27.5 25.1 -0.5 43.4 44.9 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 28.5 27.7 26.4 -0.4 44.6 46.8 27.5 28.1 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 27.9 27.4 25.8 -0.4 46.0 46.4 26.9 27.5 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 29.0 28.5 25.6 -0.4 45.6 45.9 28.0 28.6 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.0 25.8 -0.7 40.9 42.0 26.9 27.6 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.7 28.0 0.2 52.8 54.0 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.2 26.2 -0.2 47.9 48.7 28.6 29.3 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.3 26.9 -1.1 35.8 36.0 26.2 26.9 27.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 27.0 26.3 24.2 -0.6 41.1 43.1 26.1 26.7 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 27.8 26.7 27.7 -0.8 40.3 40.9 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.8 22.3 22.1 -0.6 39.2 42.7 21.8 23.4 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 28.1 27.3 27.3 -0.8 41.4 41.1 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 26.8 26.8 26.9 -1.0 36.6 37.6 26.5 27.6 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.7 27.3 27.9 -0.3 50.6 48.3 27.0 27.3 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 27.7 27.0 26.0 -0.6 42.9 44.1 26.5 27.2 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.4 26.0 -0.8 40.5 39.8 27.1 27.8 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.2 28.3 25.5 -0.4 46.0 46.1 27.5 28.9 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 27.9 26.9 26.6 -0.9 39.2 39.2 26.8 27.4 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.0 27.1 0.2 53.2 53.9 27.8 28.9 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 21.4 23.2 -0.8 37.2 40.6 21.2 22.3 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.9 26.8 27.5 -1.1 36.3 37.3 26.7 27.4 28.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------