***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 23.8 26.8 26.9 -0.2 53.1 49.7 24.3 26.3 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 23.3 25.9 26.9 -0.2 51.7 49.2 24.4 25.8 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.1 26.6 27.5 0.1 57.7 52.4 24.5 25.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.6 20.0 26.0 0.6 60.4 56.2 17.1 19.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.1 26.1 0.3 59.1 54.4 24.7 26.9 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 26.4 26.4 24.1 0.6 60.9 57.3 23.7 26.0 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 23.1 25.4 26.8 -0.4 48.3 47.7 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.0 15.4 24.5 0.5 59.5 55.6 13.4 14.4 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.9 26.1 0.3 58.8 54.3 24.3 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.3 25.0 0.5 59.6 55.3 24.0 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 26.6 27.0 26.0 0.5 61.8 55.9 24.3 26.2 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.8 26.4 25.8 0.5 60.4 55.6 24.1 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 26.9 27.3 25.0 0.3 57.0 54.0 24.6 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.0 25.3 0.2 57.7 53.8 24.0 25.5 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.0 27.4 27.0 0.7 63.3 57.8 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 27.7 28.3 25.8 0.5 61.3 56.0 25.2 27.2 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 23.0 25.4 26.5 -0.3 49.5 48.2 23.5 25.5 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 23.1 25.1 24.2 0.4 57.7 54.6 23.2 25.0 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 26.4 26.0 27.2 0.0 56.0 51.5 23.8 25.8 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.2 21.6 22.1 0.4 57.5 54.7 19.5 20.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.8 26.6 26.8 0.1 56.5 52.0 24.2 26.4 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 23.5 25.9 26.4 -0.2 50.9 49.0 23.7 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.0 27.1 27.4 0.4 62.4 54.8 23.7 25.4 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.9 25.6 0.3 57.8 54.4 23.7 25.5 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 26.9 26.7 25.4 -0.1 54.7 50.3 24.5 26.4 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.9 27.0 25.6 0.5 56.2 55.3 24.3 26.4 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 23.9 26.3 26.0 -0.2 51.9 49.2 24.2 26.1 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.4 27.9 26.6 0.8 62.7 58.1 25.1 27.0 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.4 19.9 23.2 0.2 55.5 53.8 18.9 19.7 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 23.5 25.8 27.0 -0.2 51.0 49.4 24.0 25.7 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------