***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 28.5 29.6 27.5 -1.2 36.2 39.2 29.4 30.6 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 28.4 28.9 27.7 -1.3 36.4 38.8 28.5 30.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 28.2 29.1 28.1 -0.9 38.9 42.3 28.6 30.0 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.7 22.6 25.9 -0.5 41.0 46.0 22.0 23.2 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 31.6 30.1 26.5 -0.8 40.7 42.6 29.2 31.2 32.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.8 28.9 24.1 -0.7 37.7 42.7 28.2 29.3 31.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 28.1 28.6 27.5 -1.4 36.5 37.8 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.4 18.1 24.4 -0.9 39.2 41.6 16.8 18.8 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.5 29.0 27.1 -0.7 41.8 44.2 28.7 30.2 31.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 30.5 28.8 25.2 -0.8 40.9 43.2 28.3 30.1 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 31.1 29.9 26.6 -0.7 39.8 43.3 28.3 30.8 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 30.4 28.9 25.7 -0.8 38.5 42.1 28.0 30.0 30.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 31.4 29.7 25.6 -0.9 37.4 40.8 28.9 30.8 32.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.6 29.3 26.3 -0.8 40.9 43.8 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 31.2 29.6 28.0 -0.3 42.9 47.5 28.9 30.9 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 32.1 30.5 26.2 -0.7 38.4 43.0 29.4 31.7 33.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.4 27.3 -1.3 39.3 39.6 28.1 28.7 30.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 26.6 28.2 24.4 -0.8 38.6 43.5 27.5 28.9 30.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 28.1 29.0 28.0 -0.9 41.0 42.8 28.4 29.7 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 22.1 24.3 22.2 -0.9 36.1 41.6 23.2 24.9 26.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 30.6 29.0 27.6 -1.1 37.5 40.6 28.2 30.2 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.9 27.4 -1.0 41.6 42.3 28.5 29.5 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.8 28.4 -0.3 50.2 49.5 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 27.2 28.5 26.5 -0.6 40.0 44.9 27.5 29.7 30.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.4 29.2 26.2 -1.2 36.5 39.5 29.1 30.0 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 31.0 29.0 25.1 -0.9 36.4 39.6 28.4 30.5 31.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 30.4 28.4 26.8 -1.1 36.4 39.5 28.3 29.9 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 31.1 30.3 27.0 -0.3 41.9 47.4 29.1 30.6 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 21.9 23.5 23.4 -0.9 36.4 42.0 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.6 27.7 -1.3 35.7 38.7 28.1 29.7 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------