***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 26.8 27.0 26.5 -2.3 24.0 26.7 28.1 29.4 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 27.2 26.9 26.4 -2.8 17.2 21.3 28.0 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 26.9 26.6 26.6 -2.5 21.5 25.8 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 20.4 20.7 25.0 -1.1 37.2 38.2 20.4 21.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 27.6 28.0 25.4 -2.0 26.9 30.0 28.9 29.5 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.7 27.9 23.9 -0.8 41.7 42.0 26.9 28.3 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 27.0 26.8 26.5 -2.5 20.8 24.1 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 15.7 16.0 22.8 -2.2 23.8 27.2 16.6 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 27.3 28.0 26.1 -2.0 30.2 30.3 28.2 28.9 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 27.0 27.4 23.7 -2.3 24.6 27.2 28.0 28.6 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 27.0 27.7 25.7 -2.0 27.4 30.6 28.4 28.9 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 26.4 27.1 24.5 -1.9 28.2 30.9 27.6 28.2 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 27.5 28.5 25.5 -1.5 31.0 34.6 28.7 29.1 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 26.6 26.2 24.7 -2.8 16.1 20.3 27.7 28.8 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.1 29.5 28.3 -0.5 45.6 44.5 28.8 29.6 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 28.4 29.0 25.7 -1.4 31.4 35.4 29.1 30.2 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 26.6 26.0 26.0 -2.7 16.0 21.5 27.3 28.6 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 26.0 25.7 22.4 -2.6 18.9 23.4 26.9 27.6 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 26.8 26.7 26.6 -2.6 20.1 23.7 27.5 28.8 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 21.9 21.9 20.5 -2.5 20.9 24.1 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 27.0 27.0 26.6 -2.4 23.7 26.7 27.7 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 26.9 26.9 25.9 -2.9 17.7 20.1 28.0 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 27.0 27.5 26.9 -2.0 28.9 29.6 27.8 28.4 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 26.4 26.1 24.9 -2.5 20.1 24.7 27.1 28.6 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 27.7 27.4 25.6 -2.1 23.5 28.4 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 27.8 27.8 24.1 -1.7 31.0 32.6 28.1 29.3 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 26.9 27.0 26.0 -2.1 24.0 27.8 27.9 28.6 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.3 28.9 26.7 -0.7 40.6 42.7 28.5 29.8 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 20.9 20.4 21.5 -2.8 16.4 21.2 22.2 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 27.3 27.0 26.5 -2.7 19.0 22.6 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------