***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.2 14.4 17.0 -0.9 30.7 32.0 14.4 14.8 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 13.9 13.7 16.6 -0.9 27.0 29.6 14.1 14.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.3 17.2 -0.8 32.8 33.5 16.3 17.0 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.9 15.1 -0.4 40.0 41.7 11.8 12.2 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.9 15.2 -0.6 36.3 36.7 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.0 12.3 13.3 -0.3 44.0 44.8 12.1 12.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 14.3 14.4 16.8 -1.0 26.8 29.6 14.5 14.9 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.6 7.4 13.0 -0.6 37.8 38.0 7.4 8.2 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.2 15.3 -0.6 36.3 36.5 14.2 14.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.2 13.7 -0.6 36.4 35.8 14.1 14.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 14.9 -0.6 39.5 37.9 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.0 13.9 -0.6 37.8 38.0 11.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.8 12.9 13.3 -0.8 32.5 32.7 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.5 14.4 14.8 -0.9 27.7 29.4 14.6 15.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.6 16.8 -0.3 42.6 44.4 14.9 15.8 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.6 14.2 -0.6 37.8 37.2 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 14.7 14.6 16.3 -0.9 26.3 30.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.3 12.0 12.9 -0.8 30.5 31.9 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.2 14.2 16.7 -0.8 30.8 32.7 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.4 8.3 10.8 -0.7 28.5 32.4 8.4 8.9 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.7 13.9 16.5 -0.8 32.1 33.2 13.9 14.2 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.6 16.3 -0.9 25.7 30.1 13.7 14.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.0 16.9 -0.6 37.6 38.4 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.1 14.0 14.9 -0.7 32.3 33.3 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.3 15.9 -0.8 33.7 33.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 13.0 13.0 12.8 -0.7 30.9 33.4 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.3 14.2 16.4 -0.8 31.4 32.9 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.1 15.6 -0.3 41.9 45.0 12.7 13.4 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.5 11.4 12.2 -0.8 26.3 30.6 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.5 16.9 -1.0 28.8 30.2 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------