***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.4 16.6 -0.2 52.5 48.2 12.0 13.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.5 16.2 -0.3 49.8 47.4 11.4 13.6 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.9 15.9 17.0 -0.1 55.7 50.2 14.4 15.6 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.1 11.4 14.6 0.1 57.1 53.5 10.0 10.9 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.7 12.4 14.6 0.0 55.0 51.7 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 12.2 11.7 13.0 0.3 59.9 55.8 10.5 11.5 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.5 16.3 -0.5 45.3 45.7 11.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.0 12.7 0.1 55.7 52.7 6.0 7.0 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.6 14.6 -0.1 53.9 50.8 11.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 12.1 13.5 13.3 0.0 53.8 51.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 11.7 13.3 14.2 0.0 54.4 52.0 11.5 12.8 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.6 13.4 0.0 53.9 51.7 10.5 11.4 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 11.0 12.2 12.4 -0.1 50.3 49.9 11.4 12.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 12.4 14.0 14.5 -0.1 52.7 50.4 12.6 14.0 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.0 15.0 15.9 0.2 59.6 54.5 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 12.3 14.3 13.5 0.0 53.3 51.8 12.2 14.2 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.7 15.9 -0.3 47.6 47.4 12.8 13.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.6 12.5 -0.1 50.9 50.6 10.9 11.5 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.0 13.6 16.3 -0.2 54.2 49.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.1 10.4 -0.1 51.2 51.2 7.2 7.9 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 11.8 13.2 16.1 -0.1 56.0 49.8 11.6 13.0 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 11.7 12.7 15.9 -0.3 51.4 48.3 11.3 12.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.4 13.4 16.5 0.0 57.7 52.2 11.9 12.8 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.7 14.4 0.0 53.9 51.1 12.0 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 12.0 13.3 15.3 -0.2 52.8 49.2 11.8 13.3 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 11.0 12.7 12.4 0.0 50.9 51.6 11.5 12.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.9 15.9 -0.2 53.2 48.2 11.5 13.8 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.8 15.1 0.3 60.8 55.4 10.5 11.4 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.1 10.7 11.9 -0.2 48.9 49.9 10.0 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.5 16.5 -0.3 49.6 47.5 12.3 13.6 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------