***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.3 17.8 0.0 54.9 51.1 13.8 14.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.3 17.6 0.2 57.2 53.6 13.7 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.8 17.7 18.3 0.3 58.6 54.7 15.6 17.2 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.0 15.9 0.5 59.9 58.7 11.2 12.3 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.7 15.9 0.4 57.8 57.4 11.3 13.5 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 13.2 13.1 14.2 0.7 68.2 61.1 11.8 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.7 15.4 17.7 0.0 53.8 50.7 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.6 14.0 0.5 60.9 58.7 7.0 7.9 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 15.9 0.4 56.9 57.4 13.2 14.7 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.7 14.6 0.4 58.5 58.2 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.1 15.5 0.5 58.5 58.5 12.6 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.8 14.7 0.4 58.4 57.3 11.3 12.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.3 13.5 0.1 51.8 53.1 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.8 15.8 0.2 56.1 54.8 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.0 17.2 0.5 59.4 59.4 14.4 15.8 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.5 14.8 0.4 57.1 57.5 14.0 15.0 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 17.4 0.2 58.0 54.5 14.2 15.4 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.9 13.9 0.4 58.9 57.5 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.9 17.8 0.3 59.7 55.9 13.8 15.0 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 9.3 11.6 0.4 60.8 57.2 7.5 8.7 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.5 17.2 0.2 57.4 54.2 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.1 17.3 0.2 56.3 54.6 13.4 13.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.9 17.9 0.5 63.4 58.7 13.1 14.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.4 15.8 0.4 59.5 57.8 13.3 15.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.6 16.4 0.1 55.3 51.8 13.3 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.6 13.5 0.3 53.7 55.7 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.3 17.0 0.0 53.7 50.8 13.2 14.9 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.6 16.4 0.6 60.3 60.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.9 12.9 13.3 0.3 59.4 56.5 10.9 12.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.8 17.8 0.1 55.3 52.4 13.7 15.3 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------