***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 14.5 14.6 16.3 -1.9 19.6 23.2 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 13.9 13.5 16.1 -1.8 16.6 23.6 14.8 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 16.8 16.3 16.6 -1.8 23.4 24.4 17.1 18.1 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 12.3 11.8 14.3 -1.4 27.9 27.8 12.3 14.4 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.6 -1.6 20.5 24.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 12.1 11.8 12.4 -1.3 20.7 25.9 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 14.2 14.6 16.3 -1.9 19.8 23.8 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 7.5 7.0 12.2 -1.5 19.3 24.8 8.0 8.7 10.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 13.7 13.8 14.7 -1.6 20.5 23.3 14.4 15.2 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 13.8 13.7 13.0 -1.6 19.2 23.5 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 13.5 13.3 14.3 -1.6 19.9 24.4 13.9 14.8 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 12.0 11.5 13.2 -1.6 19.8 24.7 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 12.7 12.4 12.6 -1.8 16.7 20.8 13.5 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 14.5 14.3 14.2 -1.8 19.8 22.7 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 14.8 15.3 16.0 -1.4 24.5 26.4 15.8 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 14.4 14.0 13.6 -1.6 19.6 23.6 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 14.9 14.8 15.9 -1.6 18.7 26.4 15.6 16.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 12.1 12.3 12.3 -1.7 20.3 22.4 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 14.5 14.3 16.2 -1.7 20.3 25.9 14.9 15.4 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 8.7 8.4 10.3 -1.7 16.8 23.1 8.9 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 13.6 13.5 15.9 -1.8 18.0 22.1 14.0 14.7 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 13.8 13.6 16.0 -1.6 19.2 26.7 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.2 16.4 -1.4 30.2 30.1 14.3 14.8 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 14.2 14.1 14.4 -1.7 22.6 23.7 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 14.0 14.1 15.3 -1.8 20.6 23.5 14.8 15.7 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 13.3 13.0 12.0 -1.9 13.9 19.6 13.8 14.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 14.1 14.4 15.7 -1.9 20.2 23.2 15.4 15.8 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 12.6 13.0 14.9 -1.4 27.1 27.9 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 11.8 11.2 11.6 -1.7 17.6 22.6 11.9 13.8 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 14.7 14.5 16.3 -1.9 20.2 23.5 15.3 15.7 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------