***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.2 -1.4 25.6 31.1 15.5 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 14.0 13.5 16.4 -1.8 15.4 23.3 14.9 15.6 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 16.7 16.3 17.1 -1.6 20.8 27.7 17.4 18.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.3 15.3 -0.8 34.3 40.4 12.3 13.5 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 13.3 13.0 15.7 -1.3 26.2 31.8 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.1 13.5 -0.7 37.9 39.8 12.9 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 14.7 14.6 16.7 -1.7 18.6 24.4 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.9 8.0 13.0 -1.3 24.8 31.9 8.5 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.4 15.9 -1.2 25.0 32.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 14.6 14.2 13.9 -1.4 23.0 30.4 14.8 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 14.2 14.0 15.5 -1.3 24.7 31.4 14.5 15.2 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 12.7 12.4 14.3 -1.2 27.4 33.5 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.9 14.4 -1.2 24.9 32.1 14.0 14.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 14.9 14.4 14.7 -1.9 13.2 20.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.3 17.9 -0.5 43.6 44.2 16.0 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 15.0 14.6 15.0 -1.2 26.7 32.7 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 15.4 15.0 16.1 -1.7 14.8 22.2 15.6 16.6 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 12.4 12.0 13.0 -1.7 18.3 25.8 12.8 13.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 14.5 14.4 16.6 -1.7 17.6 24.3 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 9.0 8.7 11.1 -1.5 21.3 27.8 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 14.2 14.5 16.9 -1.5 25.0 29.2 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 13.9 13.5 16.2 -2.0 13.1 18.8 14.6 15.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 14.0 14.0 16.7 -1.5 21.1 27.0 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 14.7 14.6 15.1 -1.6 17.6 25.4 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 14.5 14.1 16.6 -1.2 29.2 33.7 14.3 16.0 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.0 13.9 13.4 -1.3 25.6 31.8 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.8 14.5 16.9 -1.2 29.7 34.3 14.8 16.0 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.7 13.8 16.2 -0.6 40.3 42.4 13.6 14.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 11.8 11.6 12.1 -1.8 16.4 23.9 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 14.6 14.5 16.9 -1.7 19.6 24.8 14.8 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------