***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 25.8 26.7 22.6 51.4 31.7 28.7 29.6 43.7 63.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 22.3 23.7 22.5 53.2 30.5 28.0 24.1 36.0 62.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 28.2 24.4 21.0 48.4 26.2 26.8 30.4 46.6 65.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 34.5 35.8 23.4 56.4 34.5 32.1 34.0 42.9 55.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 16.9 26.4 18.8 48.0 27.8 27.2 29.3 37.7 42.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 27.3 31.0 25.3 54.8 32.0 30.5 32.9 40.9 44.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 20.5 20.5 24.7 58.1 33.5 30.0 20.2 34.2 45.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 39.2 36.5 22.4 48.6 25.8 26.1 40.5 64.9 89.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 22.8 22.8 19.2 46.2 24.8 25.7 24.5 41.6 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 36.3 35.4 23.0 47.1 24.6 24.8 39.2 50.3 53.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 24.0 26.6 18.2 46.2 25.0 25.0 30.3 39.0 49.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 22.6 27.8 17.8 46.9 27.2 26.8 29.9 37.3 46.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 19.0 22.6 18.2 47.5 31.7 28.6 23.5 33.2 45.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 35.6 31.4 26.2 50.3 26.3 25.5 40.7 55.6 62.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 18.1 30.2 22.7 63.7 45.2 36.6 23.2 33.2 38.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 20.2 21.8 18.4 48.3 31.1 27.7 26.7 41.1 49.0 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 24.7 24.9 23.9 57.2 33.8 30.6 24.9 36.6 55.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 30.8 28.6 26.5 49.6 22.9 25.7 39.9 44.3 51.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 22.6 23.1 21.5 50.4 27.3 26.7 32.1 42.7 61.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 38.8 33.9 30.1 57.1 28.0 29.3 38.6 57.7 68.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 24.4 23.8 20.4 49.7 27.8 27.8 26.9 45.7 63.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 32.1 32.0 23.5 54.3 27.6 28.6 33.6 45.4 58.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 28.3 23.8 20.8 47.9 26.4 25.6 25.8 46.7 50.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 32.3 33.9 23.3 48.3 24.5 25.6 36.4 49.0 69.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 24.4 30.4 24.9 55.6 34.8 31.0 29.3 33.5 44.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 21.0 25.1 17.5 51.4 34.2 30.6 24.0 32.8 43.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 29.5 24.6 25.5 54.8 32.5 29.8 24.8 44.9 61.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 19.5 29.0 22.0 57.7 39.1 33.2 22.6 31.5 37.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 42.7 45.6 28.7 52.2 24.6 26.4 54.7 64.6 84.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 22.2 21.4 22.4 51.2 28.5 26.9 22.7 32.5 40.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------