***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.9 8.5 81.9 57.1 42.2 4.2 7.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.7 7.5 74.2 54.4 42.1 3.2 7.8 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.5 8.2 79.7 55.7 43.2 2.7 7.0 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.8 8.6 8.0 79.6 56.4 43.4 3.1 7.2 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.4 7.2 78.3 55.5 44.1 3.1 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.6 5.6 8.7 70.2 58.1 43.7 2.8 4.6 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.7 7.4 75.4 55.0 42.5 3.9 6.6 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.9 19.7 8.8 75.0 53.5 43.4 5.5 14.5 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.2 7.8 80.2 53.5 43.3 5.8 8.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.3 12.0 9.3 75.9 51.8 42.7 5.7 12.0 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.2 7.0 75.5 53.3 43.4 3.5 7.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.7 7.1 74.4 56.1 43.0 2.1 9.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.4 8.4 7.3 70.2 57.0 44.7 2.9 7.0 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.3 14.3 10.7 83.1 56.7 43.0 7.5 13.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.9 6.9 7.1 82.3 64.6 45.7 0.3 2.5 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.8 10.2 7.0 71.3 56.0 42.6 2.0 5.6 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.7 7.1 73.0 55.8 43.7 5.4 8.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 10.9 11.1 81.0 55.6 44.4 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 9.5 7.8 75.3 54.3 41.7 5.7 8.4 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.0 12.8 90.8 57.2 47.8 7.9 16.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.8 8.1 88.0 57.3 44.4 3.2 6.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 8.0 13.6 7.9 71.9 54.5 43.3 8.3 13.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.5 12.2 8.3 78.4 53.3 41.8 5.7 11.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.1 15.8 9.7 80.3 56.5 43.3 6.3 10.6 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.1 9.4 91.3 60.0 44.0 1.8 6.0 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 12.2 6.3 70.7 59.3 46.3 0.5 5.6 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.3 9.7 89.9 59.3 44.1 1.5 10.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.4 7.5 76.0 59.6 43.7 1.7 6.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.1 18.5 12.2 86.1 58.1 45.3 7.9 17.5 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.9 8.0 77.4 53.7 43.5 4.0 8.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------