***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 0.5 1.4 4.2 40.7 48.5 34.4 0.0 1.5 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.0 4.2 4.7 48.6 49.0 33.0 2.1 4.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 1.8 2.9 4.1 39.4 45.5 34.3 0.8 5.1 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.6 7.9 3.4 35.0 46.2 33.3 1.7 9.9 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 1.4 1.6 2.9 30.1 45.8 31.8 0.7 3.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 2.0 1.2 2.8 24.4 35.6 23.6 0.8 9.0 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 1.4 3.7 4.3 45.8 46.9 33.8 0.7 4.4 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 4.8 11.8 3.7 33.5 43.2 27.1 3.7 15.3 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.3 1.6 3.1 29.6 44.1 30.3 0.5 3.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 2.3 3.6 4.0 33.1 42.5 28.3 1.8 6.2 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.7 3.8 2.6 29.6 46.8 27.7 2.3 4.4 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 1.5 3.2 2.5 28.6 43.7 27.0 1.7 5.4 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 1.2 2.2 2.5 26.1 43.4 27.4 0.6 3.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.7 5.1 5.5 39.1 40.9 29.5 3.7 9.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 0.3 1.0 3.1 39.2 51.2 34.0 0.4 1.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 1.1 2.4 2.2 24.6 41.6 24.4 0.9 4.1 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.8 7.2 4.2 45.0 46.0 31.1 3.4 11.0 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.4 5.5 5.1 37.2 41.8 29.3 1.4 7.3 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.8 8.5 4.6 45.8 46.6 32.7 3.0 9.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.6 10.7 5.6 41.6 42.7 30.4 8.6 12.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.3 3.2 3.4 33.1 46.2 31.5 0.7 6.7 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 3.7 8.5 4.9 46.0 47.1 31.8 4.1 9.8 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.0 3.9 4.1 37.9 40.8 29.9 1.5 6.8 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 2.7 5.7 4.6 36.7 41.2 30.0 1.1 8.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.4 4.1 38.2 45.9 33.8 0.7 5.6 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.3 4.2 2.3 28.3 47.2 30.3 1.1 4.4 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.0 4.8 4.5 41.7 46.9 33.8 2.3 5.8 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 0.8 1.8 3.0 34.3 45.7 31.9 0.3 2.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 3.6 8.6 5.7 39.9 41.6 30.0 3.4 10.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.5 3.0 4.6 45.9 46.6 34.5 1.1 3.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------