***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 0.4 0.4 3.2 31.1 40.2 27.0 0.3 1.4 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 0.7 0.8 3.0 26.7 36.0 26.7 0.6 2.4 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 0.4 0.2 3.2 30.6 38.0 26.5 0.1 1.3 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 0.2 0.8 3.3 35.0 40.8 25.4 0.2 0.9 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 0.0 0.0 2.9 30.1 37.4 25.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 0.1 0.0 4.0 38.7 38.8 24.0 0.0 0.6 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 0.7 1.0 3.0 26.5 37.0 28.0 0.8 2.1 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 1.5 2.2 3.7 35.8 38.2 25.7 1.6 6.6 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 0.0 0.0 2.9 30.1 36.0 24.1 0.0 0.2 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 0.1 0.0 3.6 33.5 36.3 25.8 0.0 0.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 0.1 0.0 3.7 35.9 38.9 26.6 0.0 0.2 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 0.1 0.0 3.4 36.8 40.6 25.9 0.0 0.3 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 0.0 0.1 3.3 39.0 46.7 30.6 0.0 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 1.4 1.2 4.1 32.7 37.1 23.7 0.7 6.4 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 0.1 0.2 3.6 43.2 46.6 30.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 0.1 0.1 3.3 36.7 43.1 28.7 0.0 0.3 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 0.8 1.0 3.4 30.4 37.8 27.2 0.7 2.8 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 0.3 0.1 3.7 30.5 32.8 23.5 0.1 1.5 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 0.5 0.7 3.0 27.2 35.3 25.6 0.5 2.0 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 1.2 2.1 4.5 38.1 37.3 26.1 1.6 4.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 0.3 0.0 3.0 30.2 36.4 25.7 0.0 1.4 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 0.6 1.2 4.1 39.3 41.4 30.5 0.9 1.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 0.8 1.0 3.1 27.3 34.1 23.9 0.9 4.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 0.6 0.5 3.4 29.1 32.3 22.6 0.6 3.0 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 0.2 0.2 3.8 33.5 36.4 26.4 0.1 0.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 0.0 0.0 3.6 42.3 41.6 28.8 0.0 0.1 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 1.6 2.1 3.5 30.6 36.6 26.7 0.8 6.1 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 0.2 0.3 3.0 35.8 43.0 25.8 0.1 0.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 1.4 0.7 4.4 32.8 33.7 24.5 0.7 6.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 0.5 0.2 3.1 27.0 36.8 27.4 0.1 1.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------