***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.4 4.7 6.7 51.8 49.1 40.9 0.0 5.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.4 9.3 7.3 65.1 53.6 43.8 2.2 4.8 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.1 5.4 45.3 47.2 37.4 0.9 5.5 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.0 11.5 8.8 70.7 57.3 45.0 4.5 10.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.0 6.2 5.8 53.8 48.8 39.2 1.3 7.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.5 10.9 9.9 82.1 58.3 46.9 2.7 8.6 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.9 10.0 83.1 61.3 47.4 2.3 5.1 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.1 14.1 6.2 48.3 45.9 36.2 9.4 15.3 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.7 10.1 5.4 46.0 46.2 36.4 4.9 11.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 5.3 10.5 6.1 44.8 43.3 34.1 9.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.4 11.5 4.8 44.9 48.4 36.5 4.1 11.6 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.2 4.9 46.6 48.0 37.5 1.9 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.4 4.7 5.1 51.3 49.8 39.7 1.6 4.8 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.6 9.7 6.0 47.0 41.9 33.9 5.4 12.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.5 12.5 8.8 82.5 66.1 50.1 1.6 7.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.9 5.9 56.5 53.6 41.5 2.4 7.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.1 9.2 79.9 60.3 48.3 2.4 6.9 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.7 11.9 6.5 47.9 42.0 33.0 5.1 12.7 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.9 6.0 55.1 49.8 40.2 2.3 4.9 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.2 6.1 7.2 55.0 42.4 36.2 3.7 6.9 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.7 5.9 50.2 47.9 37.7 2.1 9.1 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.7 6.6 59.4 54.8 43.3 4.1 7.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.0 5.4 49.7 46.0 36.4 0.9 4.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.8 10.1 5.6 47.3 44.2 33.5 5.7 12.1 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.5 12.9 7.7 61.2 51.9 44.3 1.6 12.3 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.6 5.2 62.3 59.6 43.7 0.4 5.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.0 6.4 7.9 57.5 50.7 43.2 1.3 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.7 8.5 76.1 61.5 47.2 1.1 4.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.7 12.2 6.5 49.1 42.8 33.8 5.8 17.1 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.4 5.7 6.7 56.2 50.4 41.8 3.5 5.7 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------