***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 30.0 30.7 31.0 2.9 86.7 84.1 27.3 27.8 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 29.4 30.3 30.5 2.5 84.0 80.4 27.0 27.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 29.7 30.5 31.2 2.9 86.4 83.9 27.0 27.8 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 23.1 24.8 29.5 3.6 91.9 89.6 20.2 21.5 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 30.4 31.9 29.9 3.3 88.8 87.6 28.2 28.7 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 29.2 30.4 27.0 2.7 88.3 85.3 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 29.0 29.6 30.4 2.4 83.5 79.8 26.7 27.4 28.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 18.7 19.4 27.8 3.1 88.0 86.2 15.8 17.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 29.7 31.0 30.5 3.5 89.9 88.9 27.3 27.9 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 29.2 31.0 28.7 3.2 88.0 86.6 27.3 27.8 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 30.3 31.7 29.9 3.4 89.1 88.0 27.6 28.4 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 29.6 30.9 29.2 3.3 89.6 87.9 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 30.9 32.0 29.0 3.1 89.7 86.5 28.1 28.8 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 29.0 30.3 29.0 2.7 86.2 83.0 27.0 27.6 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 30.7 31.7 30.9 3.6 92.4 89.8 27.9 28.9 29.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 31.3 32.9 29.6 3.4 90.9 88.8 28.6 29.5 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 28.5 28.9 29.9 2.2 81.5 78.3 26.4 27.1 27.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 28.2 30.0 27.7 3.0 87.6 85.0 26.3 26.8 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 29.5 29.9 30.8 2.7 85.5 81.9 26.7 27.4 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 25.2 26.1 25.3 2.7 86.9 83.9 22.0 23.6 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 30.2 31.1 30.9 3.1 88.0 85.8 27.1 27.7 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 28.9 29.4 29.7 2.0 80.9 77.2 26.7 27.8 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 29.1 29.9 31.1 3.1 88.1 85.4 27.0 27.5 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 29.1 30.2 29.4 3.0 87.4 84.8 26.7 27.4 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 30.0 30.9 29.8 3.1 87.7 85.5 27.2 28.2 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 30.6 31.6 28.7 3.1 90.1 87.2 27.6 29.0 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 29.4 30.7 30.2 2.9 86.7 84.3 27.0 27.6 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 30.5 32.1 30.1 3.5 91.8 89.6 27.9 28.9 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 24.3 25.6 26.6 2.7 86.2 83.3 21.2 22.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 29.4 30.1 30.8 2.6 84.5 81.4 26.7 27.6 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------