***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 27.6 27.8 29.0 2.0 75.4 66.2 23.8 27.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.7 28.7 1.8 73.0 64.0 24.5 27.0 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 27.3 27.7 29.4 2.1 76.6 66.5 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 20.7 21.3 27.8 2.5 77.9 71.1 17.5 19.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 27.8 28.5 28.0 2.4 78.3 68.7 25.0 26.7 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 27.1 27.5 25.2 1.9 72.3 66.2 23.8 25.9 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.9 27.2 28.7 1.8 73.4 63.7 24.4 26.7 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 16.6 17.0 26.1 2.2 74.7 66.8 13.3 15.2 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 27.4 28.6 28.3 2.5 80.3 68.9 24.3 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 26.9 27.8 26.9 2.4 77.2 67.8 24.4 25.3 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 27.6 28.3 27.8 2.5 77.5 69.1 24.7 26.0 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 27.4 28.0 27.4 2.3 75.6 67.8 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 28.6 28.4 26.7 2.1 72.8 66.5 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 27.4 27.9 27.2 2.1 76.6 64.8 24.3 26.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.5 28.5 2.5 79.5 71.7 25.9 26.9 27.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.5 27.6 2.4 76.9 69.3 25.5 27.9 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.8 28.3 1.6 70.7 62.1 23.8 25.8 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 26.2 26.7 26.1 2.3 76.0 65.9 23.3 25.1 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 27.4 27.8 29.0 2.0 74.5 65.1 23.9 26.3 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.1 23.0 23.4 1.9 70.1 63.4 19.6 21.7 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 27.6 28.3 28.8 2.2 77.7 66.7 24.5 26.2 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 26.5 27.4 28.1 1.6 70.1 62.0 24.1 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 27.3 27.9 29.2 2.3 76.4 66.8 24.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 26.9 27.8 27.6 2.3 77.8 66.3 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 27.8 28.2 27.6 2.1 75.8 67.3 24.7 26.8 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 28.1 28.7 26.9 2.1 71.3 67.3 24.7 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 27.3 27.6 28.1 2.0 75.3 66.3 24.8 26.6 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 28.2 29.0 28.0 2.5 77.7 71.1 25.5 26.6 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.0 22.0 24.9 2.0 72.4 63.8 18.2 20.5 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.8 27.5 28.9 1.9 74.4 64.9 24.1 26.4 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------