***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 30.2 32.4 32.1 4.1 88.5 82.7 27.1 28.0 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 29.9 31.3 31.6 3.8 87.5 80.3 26.2 28.0 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 30.7 31.9 32.4 4.3 89.7 82.9 26.3 28.4 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 24.1 26.6 30.9 4.7 90.7 86.2 20.4 21.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 31.3 33.7 31.0 4.5 89.1 84.5 28.0 29.2 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 30.5 31.5 27.8 3.5 86.9 81.0 26.6 27.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 29.2 31.0 31.6 3.8 87.6 80.3 25.7 27.6 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 19.5 20.7 29.1 4.3 88.1 83.5 16.1 16.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 30.4 32.6 31.3 4.6 89.9 84.9 26.9 28.6 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 30.3 32.6 29.9 4.5 88.7 84.0 27.2 28.2 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 30.9 32.9 30.7 4.5 89.6 84.9 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 30.1 31.8 30.4 4.4 88.6 84.1 27.2 28.1 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 31.7 33.0 29.5 4.0 86.7 82.3 28.0 28.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 30.0 31.6 30.0 4.1 86.4 81.3 26.4 27.9 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 31.7 33.5 31.4 4.4 90.7 85.9 27.0 29.1 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 32.2 33.7 30.5 4.4 89.8 84.9 28.7 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 29.3 30.0 31.1 3.5 86.2 78.8 25.8 27.8 28.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 29.3 31.7 29.2 4.4 88.4 82.7 26.0 27.0 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 29.5 31.3 31.9 4.0 87.8 81.2 26.0 27.9 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 25.9 27.6 26.5 3.9 85.9 81.5 22.3 23.0 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 30.6 32.3 31.8 4.3 89.5 83.4 26.6 28.6 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 29.6 30.4 30.9 3.5 85.8 78.4 26.3 28.0 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 30.0 31.6 32.1 4.3 88.8 82.9 26.4 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 29.8 32.2 30.5 4.3 89.0 82.9 26.2 27.7 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 30.9 32.7 30.8 4.3 89.0 83.6 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 31.3 32.3 29.8 4.0 88.2 83.3 27.7 28.7 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 30.1 31.6 31.2 4.1 88.6 82.8 26.5 27.8 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 31.5 34.1 31.0 4.5 90.8 85.7 27.6 29.2 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 25.0 27.0 27.9 4.0 86.8 81.3 21.5 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 29.6 31.0 31.8 3.9 88.2 81.1 26.3 28.0 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------