***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 32.2 33.0 31.5 3.0 82.7 77.3 29.0 30.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 31.2 31.7 31.2 2.7 81.4 74.6 28.5 30.0 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 31.6 32.0 31.7 3.1 82.3 77.0 28.2 30.4 31.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 24.9 26.2 29.7 3.3 85.3 79.1 21.8 23.3 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 32.6 33.2 30.2 3.2 83.2 77.5 28.7 31.0 32.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.9 31.5 26.8 2.1 78.2 69.8 28.1 29.8 30.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 31.1 31.8 31.0 2.6 81.1 74.3 28.4 29.9 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 20.3 21.0 28.0 2.9 83.9 75.7 16.7 18.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 31.6 32.3 31.0 3.5 86.1 79.9 28.2 29.9 31.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 31.3 31.9 29.0 3.2 84.6 77.3 27.4 30.0 31.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 32.0 32.7 30.2 3.2 84.2 76.9 28.1 31.0 31.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 31.3 32.2 29.3 3.0 83.4 76.1 27.7 29.9 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 32.4 33.2 29.2 2.7 80.7 73.9 28.9 30.9 32.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 31.2 31.7 29.9 3.1 85.5 77.3 27.8 30.1 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 32.1 33.4 31.2 3.1 85.5 78.4 29.0 30.4 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 33.2 33.9 29.8 3.1 83.7 76.8 29.6 31.4 33.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.2 30.7 2.6 80.1 73.9 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 30.3 30.9 28.2 3.2 84.7 76.8 27.0 28.8 30.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.6 31.5 2.9 82.6 76.0 27.6 29.9 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 26.8 27.6 25.8 2.7 83.1 74.3 23.1 24.9 26.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 31.9 32.4 31.4 3.1 83.8 77.4 27.9 30.5 31.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 31.0 31.5 30.5 2.5 79.1 73.5 28.5 29.7 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 30.8 31.6 31.9 3.5 86.2 79.3 28.0 30.1 30.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 31.0 31.6 30.1 3.2 84.9 77.5 27.1 29.7 30.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 31.6 32.1 30.2 3.0 82.3 77.0 28.2 30.1 31.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 32.2 32.9 28.7 2.7 81.8 74.0 28.0 30.9 31.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 31.5 32.4 30.7 3.0 82.4 77.0 28.0 30.1 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 32.3 33.3 30.2 3.1 84.7 77.8 28.9 30.9 32.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 26.2 26.7 27.1 2.9 84.0 75.3 22.4 24.2 26.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 31.5 32.2 31.3 2.8 81.0 75.3 28.2 30.2 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------