***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 31.1 31.8 31.3 2.6 80.9 77.5 28.4 29.2 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.9 30.6 1.5 74.2 69.8 28.1 28.9 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.0 31.2 2.3 79.1 75.0 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 23.9 25.2 29.8 3.8 86.0 85.6 20.8 21.3 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 31.5 32.5 30.4 3.3 84.3 81.7 28.5 29.4 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 29.7 31.4 28.0 3.3 88.0 84.1 27.2 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.5 30.4 1.5 73.6 69.4 28.0 28.9 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 18.8 19.4 27.9 2.9 81.4 79.6 16.5 17.3 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 30.8 31.8 31.3 3.4 85.3 83.2 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 30.2 30.7 28.8 2.9 80.0 78.7 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 31.2 32.1 30.8 3.4 84.3 82.0 28.3 28.8 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 30.1 31.8 29.7 3.5 86.8 84.1 27.5 28.3 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 31.5 32.5 30.5 3.5 87.0 84.2 28.6 29.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.9 29.0 1.5 76.5 69.7 27.8 28.5 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 31.6 32.9 32.6 4.2 89.1 88.1 28.9 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 32.0 33.6 30.6 3.7 87.3 84.8 29.4 30.2 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 29.9 29.6 29.6 1.0 71.4 64.9 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 28.7 29.1 27.3 2.3 77.1 74.9 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.5 30.8 1.7 75.4 71.1 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 25.0 25.4 25.5 2.4 78.5 75.8 22.9 24.0 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 30.7 31.2 31.5 2.8 81.5 78.6 27.7 29.3 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.5 29.2 0.6 64.6 60.1 27.9 29.1 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 30.3 31.4 31.2 2.3 81.4 75.7 27.6 28.4 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 30.2 30.8 29.5 2.1 78.6 74.3 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 31.2 31.8 30.5 2.9 81.9 79.7 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 31.0 32.3 29.4 3.7 87.7 85.0 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.2 30.6 2.5 81.5 78.0 27.6 28.8 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 31.5 32.5 31.0 4.0 88.0 86.6 28.6 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 24.5 24.6 26.3 2.0 75.5 72.6 22.1 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.8 30.9 1.9 76.0 72.1 27.8 28.8 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------