***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.3 17.9 1.2 73.1 63.4 12.8 13.8 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.9 14.1 17.4 0.8 64.6 58.1 11.8 13.7 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.9 18.2 1.3 74.5 65.3 14.3 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.2 15.4 1.1 72.3 65.6 9.8 11.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.9 15.6 1.3 75.1 67.3 10.8 12.6 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 12.3 12.5 13.5 1.0 70.4 66.1 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.4 14.8 17.7 1.0 69.6 60.4 12.3 13.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 7.9 8.4 13.4 1.1 71.5 66.3 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 14.4 14.8 15.7 1.3 75.5 67.3 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.4 14.1 1.1 70.0 65.2 12.4 13.3 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.5 15.0 1.3 74.2 68.3 11.8 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.7 14.2 1.3 75.0 68.7 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.9 13.3 1.0 69.8 64.9 11.0 12.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.9 15.4 0.9 68.6 62.2 13.0 14.1 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 15.7 16.0 16.8 1.3 74.8 68.5 13.4 14.8 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.2 14.4 1.2 74.1 67.8 12.5 14.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.2 16.9 0.6 61.3 56.0 12.7 14.0 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.6 13.1 0.9 67.2 63.3 10.8 11.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.3 17.5 0.9 66.9 59.8 12.6 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.0 10.9 0.8 62.8 61.8 6.9 8.1 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.5 17.2 1.3 73.8 66.2 11.9 12.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.7 16.9 0.7 64.0 58.0 11.9 13.3 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.5 14.2 17.6 1.2 72.5 63.5 12.0 13.2 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.5 15.3 1.1 70.5 64.6 12.4 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.6 16.5 1.1 68.9 63.8 12.3 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.5 13.2 1.0 69.4 65.8 11.5 13.0 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.0 17.2 1.1 70.7 63.2 11.7 13.9 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 13.5 14.0 15.7 1.2 73.9 67.3 10.9 12.0 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 12.0 12.5 0.9 65.3 62.6 9.8 10.9 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.8 17.8 1.1 70.1 61.2 12.5 14.0 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------