***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 15.8 16.4 19.7 2.4 86.7 77.3 14.3 14.9 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.5 19.0 1.9 81.3 72.6 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 18.4 19.1 19.9 2.4 86.8 78.3 15.9 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 14.2 15.1 17.1 2.0 83.2 76.2 11.2 12.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 14.3 15.0 17.0 2.0 85.4 77.4 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 13.2 13.6 14.8 1.5 80.7 72.4 11.7 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 16.1 17.0 19.4 2.2 84.5 75.9 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.3 10.1 14.8 1.8 86.8 78.0 7.1 8.1 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.7 17.2 2.1 86.4 78.0 13.2 14.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 15.4 16.0 15.5 1.8 85.4 76.4 13.1 14.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.7 16.4 1.9 85.5 77.9 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 13.1 13.6 15.5 1.9 85.6 77.9 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.6 14.5 1.3 75.1 69.6 12.5 13.4 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.7 16.7 1.7 83.0 74.2 13.9 15.2 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 16.5 17.1 18.2 2.0 84.0 76.4 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.5 15.7 1.7 80.6 74.4 14.4 14.8 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.9 18.6 1.8 80.4 72.2 14.2 15.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 13.6 14.3 14.4 1.6 82.5 74.0 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 16.2 16.6 19.1 2.0 83.1 73.5 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.4 9.9 12.2 1.4 80.3 72.1 7.9 8.7 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.2 16.6 18.7 2.2 87.2 77.8 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 15.2 16.0 18.6 1.8 83.2 73.2 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 15.2 16.0 19.2 2.2 86.5 76.4 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.5 16.7 1.9 84.8 75.9 13.4 15.0 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 15.5 16.3 18.2 2.2 84.8 75.9 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 14.3 14.6 14.4 1.4 77.6 70.6 13.3 13.6 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 16.3 17.5 18.9 2.3 85.6 76.7 13.7 15.0 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 14.3 14.9 17.2 1.9 83.2 76.2 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 13.6 14.5 13.8 1.5 83.0 74.2 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.3 19.5 2.2 84.2 75.6 14.0 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------