***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.6 18.7 0.9 69.8 63.3 14.9 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.7 16.0 18.0 0.4 61.3 57.5 15.0 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.4 19.3 18.9 0.9 70.4 63.8 17.2 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.5 15.4 16.3 0.7 66.7 61.1 12.4 14.1 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.8 16.7 0.9 71.3 63.2 13.5 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.4 13.8 13.9 0.3 61.2 55.2 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.4 18.4 0.6 63.7 60.3 15.4 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.5 14.1 0.7 67.2 60.1 8.1 8.8 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 15.8 16.2 16.8 1.0 73.4 64.7 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.0 15.0 0.7 66.8 60.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.2 16.2 0.9 70.0 62.8 13.8 14.8 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.5 15.2 0.8 68.0 61.6 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 13.1 14.3 14.5 0.3 59.7 55.1 13.4 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.1 16.1 0.4 62.5 58.2 14.9 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.1 17.3 18.1 1.0 71.1 65.8 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.4 15.6 0.7 65.9 60.3 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.4 17.7 0.4 61.3 58.1 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.7 13.9 13.9 0.4 59.2 57.2 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.2 18.2 0.6 64.7 60.0 14.9 15.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.9 12.0 0.3 57.9 55.6 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.6 16.0 18.1 1.0 73.3 64.9 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.3 17.9 0.5 62.8 59.7 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.8 15.7 18.5 0.9 71.0 64.0 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.9 16.2 0.6 64.4 60.2 14.5 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.3 17.7 0.9 69.9 63.1 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.7 14.7 13.9 0.3 61.1 55.0 14.1 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.5 17.0 18.0 0.8 69.0 62.4 15.3 16.3 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 14.5 14.7 16.8 0.8 68.3 62.9 13.1 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.3 13.2 0.4 58.3 56.4 12.1 13.7 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.6 18.5 0.7 64.6 60.4 15.1 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------