***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 17.0 17.4 21.2 2.8 87.9 86.3 14.9 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 16.4 16.9 19.8 1.6 80.7 73.9 14.6 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 18.6 19.5 20.9 2.3 86.1 83.1 17.5 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 15.0 16.0 18.8 2.7 91.1 89.1 12.5 13.3 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 15.7 16.4 19.5 2.9 91.8 90.3 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 14.4 16.1 16.8 2.9 97.5 95.0 13.0 13.5 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 16.8 17.1 20.2 1.8 81.8 76.7 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 10.2 10.8 16.2 2.3 88.2 87.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.8 17.9 19.9 3.2 96.0 94.0 14.9 15.9 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 16.5 16.9 17.4 2.4 90.0 88.2 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 16.2 17.1 19.3 3.0 95.2 93.3 14.7 15.5 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 14.3 15.1 17.9 2.8 94.0 91.8 12.7 13.6 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 15.4 17.4 18.1 3.0 97.9 96.6 14.1 14.8 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 17.0 17.5 18.0 1.6 82.9 79.0 15.4 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.7 20.1 21.8 3.9 99.8 98.5 16.1 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 17.3 18.4 18.8 3.1 98.1 95.9 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.3 19.0 1.1 76.8 68.3 15.6 16.4 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 15.2 15.4 16.1 1.9 85.2 83.8 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.1 20.0 1.7 82.2 75.9 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 10.8 11.2 14.2 1.8 86.0 83.8 9.4 10.1 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 16.5 17.0 20.7 2.9 92.8 90.4 14.7 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.2 19.1 0.9 73.7 65.7 14.5 15.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 16.1 16.9 20.2 2.1 84.9 81.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 17.0 17.2 18.3 1.9 85.4 83.2 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 17.0 17.9 20.6 3.0 90.0 88.0 14.9 15.9 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 15.4 17.7 17.2 3.0 97.3 95.5 14.3 14.7 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 17.5 18.8 20.8 2.9 88.5 86.3 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 15.4 17.1 19.8 3.3 95.2 93.7 13.4 14.8 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 14.0 14.3 15.1 1.6 83.6 81.4 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 17.2 17.7 20.5 2.0 83.4 78.7 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------