***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 29.3 63.5 49.0 122.9 70.5 57.9 29.6 45.0 58.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 46.4 65.8 42.5 114.9 65.8 56.1 24.1 39.3 66.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 54.2 65.1 45.8 114.3 65.4 55.4 33.1 47.4 65.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 52.4 58.0 47.6 118.3 66.4 55.7 37.7 46.5 57.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 41.3 45.1 43.4 112.4 64.7 56.1 29.0 37.7 46.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 45.0 43.3 50.2 111.8 62.8 56.6 33.1 40.3 44.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 41.5 48.4 43.9 118.2 68.5 56.1 20.2 34.8 46.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 71.6 86.1 55.2 119.4 66.1 60.7 42.0 64.9 86.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 49.1 52.6 44.9 110.3 63.2 54.5 28.7 41.7 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 58.0 58.5 54.7 112.2 62.5 56.6 40.3 50.8 59.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 48.4 48.9 41.4 108.7 60.5 55.8 32.2 46.7 49.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 39.5 44.0 42.2 115.8 65.8 59.0 31.3 36.8 44.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 40.7 46.3 44.9 123.4 68.3 60.1 23.8 34.3 45.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 42.7 61.3 55.8 101.7 58.7 52.5 44.9 59.6 66.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 36.4 42.9 41.3 122.5 69.6 55.0 19.5 31.7 39.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 43.4 43.1 41.2 114.1 62.8 56.5 30.0 38.8 45.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 43.5 55.9 43.1 117.1 67.3 56.9 28.1 39.3 55.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 51.3 58.7 66.5 122.5 68.5 61.0 41.4 46.1 55.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 50.2 51.1 42.2 110.4 63.7 54.7 32.1 43.3 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 64.0 79.1 70.2 127.0 71.3 63.8 38.4 60.2 68.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 52.6 62.8 46.5 117.9 66.9 56.7 26.9 45.7 62.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 52.5 60.1 43.2 113.6 66.5 55.3 35.0 47.8 59.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 34.0 49.4 42.4 101.2 58.7 51.4 27.5 46.1 50.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 41.1 70.8 55.7 112.3 63.9 56.2 40.8 56.4 73.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 52.8 54.6 52.7 123.3 70.8 57.6 30.0 33.0 44.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 37.2 48.3 41.3 129.8 71.3 60.9 22.1 33.3 43.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 29.5 66.5 51.6 121.2 69.9 56.9 24.0 41.5 61.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 35.7 37.4 44.2 118.6 66.7 55.8 21.6 30.4 37.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 72.4 89.7 69.8 123.8 69.0 61.9 50.9 65.1 86.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 37.7 40.2 43.9 116.3 66.0 55.6 23.4 30.5 40.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------