***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 15.1 13.3 130.8 71.4 49.9 4.2 7.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.1 15.5 10.6 105.4 66.8 49.9 4.2 7.5 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.8 20.6 13.1 122.6 69.6 51.1 2.7 11.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 27.9 14.1 128.6 76.8 55.1 3.4 7.6 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.5 25.3 13.6 131.2 77.3 55.1 3.1 8.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.8 18.3 15.5 121.0 73.2 56.7 2.6 4.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.8 11.5 11.4 111.5 69.6 50.1 2.5 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.8 33.0 16.3 131.2 75.3 56.2 5.9 16.3 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 23.8 13.8 122.1 75.0 52.9 5.1 8.1 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.1 28.0 16.5 124.7 74.1 53.8 5.1 12.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.3 22.0 13.0 130.9 77.4 55.8 3.9 7.6 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.5 24.8 13.5 133.0 76.6 57.1 2.9 11.1 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.3 32.8 14.7 139.2 77.2 58.2 3.2 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.7 15.6 14.6 96.4 62.9 48.1 8.0 14.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.5 8.6 11.4 115.5 74.4 51.9 0.5 3.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.8 26.4 12.8 128.7 77.1 57.2 3.0 8.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.9 14.3 10.5 103.4 68.5 49.1 5.5 8.6 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.5 18.0 116.7 72.1 53.3 5.2 11.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.3 13.1 10.9 105.1 66.8 49.4 4.2 9.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.7 22.9 18.1 115.4 68.5 55.0 6.7 16.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.8 19.5 13.4 127.0 74.7 51.9 3.2 6.3 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.9 15.5 10.9 103.4 67.3 47.8 7.6 13.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.5 19.2 11.6 101.7 64.9 48.2 5.6 10.7 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.6 23.7 15.7 112.8 68.9 51.8 6.3 9.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.3 19.2 14.9 136.7 74.6 51.6 1.7 6.8 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.1 24.4 13.4 144.8 78.3 58.5 1.7 5.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 15.1 14.5 135.4 71.7 51.0 2.0 9.4 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.3 17.7 12.8 121.9 76.1 55.7 2.7 6.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.5 29.3 18.2 114.6 68.8 53.3 9.4 16.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.7 11.8 11.6 113.8 67.3 49.8 4.0 6.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------