***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.0 12.3 16.2 164.5 77.8 57.2 0.0 2.0 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 15.7 13.8 148.7 76.7 55.4 1.6 4.8 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.8 15.7 15.6 156.5 78.1 57.4 1.7 3.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.2 27.4 17.3 187.6 81.6 61.3 0.3 2.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.9 14.6 14.7 168.6 79.5 61.3 0.7 2.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.3 16.6 18.5 183.4 81.1 66.3 0.5 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.0 17.6 15.0 164.2 79.7 57.1 0.5 6.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.6 25.5 15.9 154.8 77.4 63.0 2.9 11.9 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.6 12.1 14.2 150.3 77.1 57.9 0.2 2.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.4 14.7 16.4 146.6 75.2 59.4 1.4 4.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.7 14.0 12.3 147.9 77.5 61.2 1.3 2.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 6.6 9.8 12.5 156.7 78.9 63.8 0.5 2.8 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.8 15.4 15.4 189.0 82.9 66.9 0.0 2.8 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.6 23.4 18.0 129.4 72.5 53.7 3.5 7.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.2 13.4 16.2 214.4 83.6 62.0 0.4 0.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.2 13.8 14.2 181.0 81.1 64.7 0.3 2.7 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.9 22.6 13.4 154.6 77.6 56.0 3.0 7.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.9 20.0 20.1 162.1 77.6 60.1 1.5 5.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 18.7 13.7 142.7 76.0 54.6 3.1 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.8 19.8 19.9 161.2 77.9 63.5 1.3 11.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.5 15.9 15.4 167.6 78.5 57.7 0.5 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.1 19.7 14.1 154.4 77.6 57.7 3.7 9.8 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.2 18.6 13.8 132.0 74.9 54.4 1.2 6.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.1 19.6 17.2 144.2 75.8 56.3 1.1 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.0 17.1 18.8 185.2 81.4 59.7 0.6 2.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 10.7 16.8 12.4 174.5 80.6 64.7 0.2 3.8 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 26.6 17.4 165.4 79.1 57.4 0.4 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.5 20.1 16.5 199.2 82.2 63.9 0.0 1.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.8 25.7 20.5 158.7 77.7 61.0 1.0 11.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.5 11.9 15.0 155.4 78.4 56.7 0.9 5.0 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------