***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 8.4 10.7 12.8 114.7 70.7 61.7 0.1 4.1 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 10.3 14.3 12.3 130.2 75.1 64.7 0.8 3.5 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.1 11.6 11.8 106.6 69.6 60.2 2.3 4.9 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 3.3 9.0 11.3 116.1 72.7 61.1 0.8 1.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 1.6 3.9 10.9 111.0 70.9 62.7 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 3.1 5.9 11.8 111.4 68.9 57.5 0.0 1.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 9.0 8.9 11.9 128.2 74.8 63.2 1.1 3.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 13.9 17.0 14.4 130.9 73.7 64.9 2.0 7.1 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.7 11.0 11.8 113.5 70.1 60.5 0.2 2.7 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.3 16.7 13.7 118.4 70.2 61.1 0.1 7.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 2.0 5.4 12.3 118.3 70.9 63.0 0.0 1.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 6.8 8.0 11.0 124.9 73.6 63.5 0.0 2.0 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 46 54 100 4.6 7.5 12.0 140.6 76.5 66.3 0.0 1.1 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.9 17.9 15.0 107.5 67.7 57.3 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.3 4.8 8.4 105.5 71.1 51.4 0.0 0.6 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 1.6 5.4 10.6 121.1 71.8 62.9 0.1 0.6 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.4 7.9 12.0 134.8 74.0 62.1 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 11.0 13.3 18.0 143.4 74.2 66.9 1.2 5.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 9.0 10.2 11.9 120.8 73.8 61.9 1.3 3.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 11.8 15.2 19.0 154.0 77.2 69.2 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.4 11.8 12.3 115.5 71.4 62.4 0.1 2.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.3 10.6 11.9 134.7 74.7 62.1 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.9 11.3 100.6 69.5 56.7 0.9 5.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.7 17.1 16.0 126.7 72.7 62.4 2.7 10.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 3.7 9.4 14.0 121.4 74.7 64.0 0.2 1.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 2.1 4.5 9.5 122.8 72.6 55.2 0.0 0.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.0 12.4 13.6 114.5 72.2 61.4 1.0 5.4 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 2.8 5.2 9.8 113.9 72.6 57.9 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 16.1 20.0 20.2 149.3 76.6 68.2 1.9 7.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.3 13.2 11.6 116.2 73.2 61.1 1.5 3.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------