***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.4 12.0 6.7 77.2 61.1 44.7 0.3 8.4 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 11.8 5.9 71.1 60.2 47.1 2.1 4.7 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.8 12.0 5.4 64.7 57.3 44.1 0.9 5.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.1 9.8 4.9 47.5 48.6 40.0 3.1 10.0 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.1 7.7 4.3 43.9 47.4 38.7 0.4 8.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.4 6.0 4.4 38.6 40.1 35.3 2.7 8.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.6 4.8 5.6 66.4 58.7 46.4 1.9 4.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 19.3 18.7 8.6 69.7 53.1 46.7 12.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.8 10.5 5.1 53.5 52.4 40.6 4.8 9.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.4 14.3 8.1 63.0 51.8 43.8 6.8 14.0 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.0 12.1 3.7 38.3 48.7 39.6 4.7 12.4 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.7 10.4 5.2 54.4 51.5 44.4 2.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.2 3.9 2.8 31.1 43.3 35.6 1.6 5.3 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.7 8.2 69.0 55.3 47.5 4.9 9.5 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 10.5 8.4 5.2 63.3 56.3 47.5 3.3 7.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.4 6.1 3.6 37.4 46.1 37.9 2.4 8.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.1 7.2 79.4 62.9 49.5 2.4 7.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.7 13.1 10.3 73.3 54.0 46.1 5.6 10.9 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.1 5.7 68.2 58.1 46.1 1.9 4.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 11.7 13.1 88.9 56.7 50.3 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.6 5.5 60.2 56.2 42.9 5.7 8.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.4 6.2 66.0 57.3 45.4 3.6 8.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.9 5.7 64.7 55.6 45.8 1.9 5.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.6 15.4 6.9 61.1 53.1 43.2 5.1 12.9 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.3 5.0 49.5 50.9 36.9 2.5 8.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.2 6.0 78.1 59.2 47.7 2.2 7.4 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.0 6.2 65.5 56.0 40.3 3.2 6.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.8 4.4 5.1 52.1 51.9 43.0 0.8 4.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.0 18.2 10.9 77.0 54.9 47.5 7.3 17.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.2 5.7 72.5 59.3 46.0 2.2 5.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------