***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 28.5 29.3 29.5 0.9 64.6 64.6 27.6 28.2 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 28.1 28.8 29.6 0.9 65.4 64.4 27.2 27.8 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 28.1 28.7 29.4 0.6 61.4 60.2 26.9 27.9 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 21.8 21.6 26.6 0.1 55.4 53.5 20.2 21.5 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 28.9 28.5 26.8 -0.3 47.9 47.7 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 28.2 27.8 24.4 -0.3 47.1 46.3 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 28.6 28.8 29.7 1.1 69.4 67.1 26.9 27.6 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.5 16.9 24.6 -0.4 44.3 44.3 15.9 17.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 28.2 27.9 27.2 -0.3 47.9 47.7 27.4 27.9 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 28.0 27.6 25.5 -0.4 45.2 45.5 27.4 27.8 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 28.7 28.3 26.8 -0.2 48.7 48.0 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 28.2 27.7 26.0 -0.4 46.5 45.2 27.0 27.9 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.6 25.9 -0.5 43.4 42.5 28.0 28.8 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 28.1 28.0 26.8 0.0 53.6 51.6 27.1 27.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 29.3 29.5 28.2 0.4 60.3 57.4 28.0 29.1 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 30.0 29.6 26.4 -0.3 47.2 46.8 28.6 29.7 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 28.2 28.2 29.5 1.2 70.2 68.2 26.6 27.4 27.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 27.2 26.8 24.8 -0.3 46.3 47.3 26.3 27.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 28.0 28.1 29.4 0.7 61.5 60.8 26.8 27.7 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.9 22.7 22.4 -0.5 40.9 42.8 22.1 23.5 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 28.3 28.1 28.2 0.0 52.2 51.4 27.1 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 28.3 28.4 29.1 0.9 64.8 63.6 27.1 28.1 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 28.0 28.1 29.0 0.5 59.3 58.0 27.0 27.9 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 27.7 27.5 26.9 0.0 52.3 51.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 28.5 28.4 27.4 0.2 56.7 55.2 27.1 28.2 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.0 25.9 -0.2 48.5 47.4 27.6 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 27.9 28.5 28.4 0.6 63.2 61.9 27.1 27.7 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.2 27.0 0.0 53.4 51.7 27.9 29.0 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 23.3 22.6 23.9 -0.3 45.9 46.7 21.3 23.0 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 28.1 28.9 29.6 0.9 65.3 64.0 26.9 27.8 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------