***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.3 27.2 27.9 0.5 56.4 55.6 24.5 27.0 27.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.2 28.2 0.8 61.4 58.6 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.4 28.1 0.4 54.7 54.3 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.2 25.7 0.1 49.5 49.7 17.6 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.2 25.5 -0.5 42.1 44.4 25.3 27.3 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 24.2 24.9 23.2 -0.4 41.7 43.6 24.2 26.2 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.1 28.2 0.8 62.9 59.3 25.0 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.1 23.7 -0.5 42.0 44.8 13.6 15.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 26.7 25.9 25.6 -0.5 42.0 44.7 24.6 26.1 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 26.8 25.6 24.3 -0.5 42.5 44.8 24.6 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.3 25.3 -0.4 44.3 45.4 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.9 25.4 25.0 -0.4 42.5 44.9 24.5 26.2 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.3 25.7 24.2 -0.8 37.1 40.9 25.1 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.2 25.4 -0.1 50.3 49.8 24.9 26.2 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.3 26.7 0.4 52.3 52.5 26.0 27.0 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 25.9 27.6 25.1 -0.4 43.0 44.6 25.7 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.4 28.0 0.9 64.0 60.4 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 26.1 25.3 23.9 -0.3 44.9 46.8 23.7 25.8 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 26.6 27.1 28.2 0.7 59.7 57.6 24.6 26.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 22.7 21.4 21.3 -0.5 42.6 44.4 19.7 22.1 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.2 26.7 -0.2 45.9 47.2 24.7 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 27.5 26.9 27.9 0.9 63.4 59.7 24.6 26.0 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.9 27.9 0.6 57.0 56.0 24.4 26.2 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 26.3 25.8 25.5 -0.1 48.9 49.1 24.1 25.9 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.2 26.5 25.8 -0.1 47.5 49.1 25.4 26.8 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.8 26.1 25.0 -0.1 44.8 47.1 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.7 26.9 0.3 53.7 53.9 25.2 26.4 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 27.5 27.0 25.9 0.0 48.0 49.2 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.4 22.9 -0.3 44.1 46.4 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.8 28.2 0.8 60.1 58.0 24.8 26.5 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------