***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.2 28.8 0.5 57.6 55.4 27.2 28.6 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.6 29.0 0.6 58.4 56.3 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.5 28.8 0.3 55.1 53.2 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.4 21.7 26.6 0.0 50.1 50.2 20.9 21.7 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.1 28.9 26.2 -0.6 42.0 44.2 28.1 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 26.0 27.5 23.9 -0.7 40.2 42.5 27.0 28.0 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.7 29.0 0.7 60.2 57.7 26.9 28.3 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.7 16.3 24.3 -0.9 40.4 41.9 16.1 17.0 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.1 26.3 -0.7 43.0 43.7 27.7 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 29.3 27.9 25.0 -0.8 41.2 42.9 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.4 26.0 -0.6 42.6 44.5 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.0 27.3 25.6 -0.9 40.4 42.1 26.8 28.9 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 27.4 28.1 24.8 -1.2 35.0 38.4 28.0 29.1 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 28.4 27.7 25.8 -0.6 45.3 45.8 26.6 28.0 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.8 27.7 0.3 54.7 54.2 27.6 29.5 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 28.5 29.4 25.8 -0.7 41.4 43.7 28.8 30.3 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.3 28.5 28.8 0.7 59.2 57.3 26.2 28.0 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.9 26.9 24.4 -0.7 42.0 43.8 26.0 27.4 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.3 28.5 28.9 0.4 56.6 54.6 26.6 27.9 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.1 22.4 21.8 -1.1 37.4 39.7 22.2 23.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.3 27.4 -0.5 46.0 46.6 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.6 28.5 0.5 56.4 55.2 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.2 28.0 28.4 0.1 53.6 52.0 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.2 27.7 26.1 -0.5 46.3 46.4 26.4 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.6 26.6 -0.2 48.5 49.1 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.8 25.6 -0.7 42.3 43.5 28.0 29.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.8 27.7 0.3 55.1 53.8 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.3 26.8 -0.1 49.8 50.0 28.4 29.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.2 22.1 23.4 -0.9 40.9 42.5 21.8 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.6 29.0 0.6 59.1 56.4 27.1 28.0 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------