***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 30.8 31.1 30.1 1.0 66.2 62.5 28.8 30.6 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 30.4 30.6 30.1 0.8 62.4 59.3 28.2 30.2 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 30.5 30.5 29.8 0.5 59.6 57.4 28.1 30.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 23.4 23.8 27.2 0.4 59.9 56.9 21.5 23.1 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 31.2 31.0 27.4 -0.2 53.3 51.2 28.5 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 29.5 29.7 25.1 0.0 52.0 52.1 27.9 29.3 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 29.9 30.6 30.2 1.0 65.6 61.6 28.2 29.7 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 18.7 18.3 25.1 -0.4 47.8 48.0 16.5 18.4 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 30.3 30.0 27.8 -0.2 51.9 50.2 28.0 30.0 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 30.0 29.6 26.0 -0.4 48.2 47.9 27.2 29.8 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 30.9 30.7 27.4 -0.2 52.6 50.7 27.9 30.6 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 29.9 29.7 26.6 -0.2 51.2 50.0 27.5 29.6 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 30.7 30.3 26.7 -0.3 49.7 49.5 28.8 30.3 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 29.9 29.6 27.2 -0.3 49.5 48.9 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 31.0 31.3 29.2 0.6 62.1 59.6 29.0 30.7 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 31.5 31.3 27.2 -0.1 52.9 51.8 29.3 31.1 32.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 29.5 30.0 29.9 1.0 64.8 61.6 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 29.2 28.9 25.2 -0.4 49.4 48.3 26.9 29.0 29.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 29.7 30.4 29.8 0.5 59.6 56.6 27.6 29.5 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 25.2 24.5 22.9 -0.5 46.1 46.7 22.9 24.8 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 30.5 30.6 28.8 0.0 54.4 52.6 27.8 30.3 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 30.0 30.1 29.5 0.7 59.6 58.1 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 30.3 30.4 29.4 0.3 57.8 54.8 27.6 30.2 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 29.5 29.4 27.3 -0.2 52.6 50.1 27.1 29.2 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 30.4 30.5 28.1 0.3 58.1 56.2 28.3 30.1 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 30.6 30.6 26.6 0.2 52.4 52.7 28.0 30.2 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 30.3 30.9 29.0 0.7 63.8 60.3 28.1 30.0 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 31.2 31.6 27.8 0.3 57.9 55.6 29.0 30.9 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 24.7 24.3 24.3 -0.5 48.3 47.5 22.4 24.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 30.2 30.9 30.1 0.8 62.2 59.7 27.9 30.0 30.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------