***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.6 31.1 1.5 70.8 69.6 28.1 28.9 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.3 30.7 31.2 1.5 69.5 68.6 28.1 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 30.0 30.2 30.9 1.2 67.5 65.8 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 21.9 22.0 26.9 0.2 54.2 54.0 20.3 21.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 95 5 100 29.5 29.6 28.1 0.2 57.0 56.3 28.3 29.4 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 98 2 100 28.2 28.5 25.3 0.0 53.3 52.0 26.7 28.2 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.5 31.3 1.7 72.6 71.4 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 98 2 100 17.2 17.4 25.5 0.0 55.1 53.3 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 28.9 29.3 28.9 0.4 60.1 58.6 27.7 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 96 4 100 28.6 28.6 26.6 0.1 56.9 55.5 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 95 5 100 28.8 28.8 28.4 0.3 57.7 56.5 28.3 28.7 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 97 3 100 28.1 28.2 26.8 0.0 55.1 53.4 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 98 2 100 29.1 29.4 27.8 0.2 55.3 54.4 28.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 48 52 100 29.5 29.4 28.9 0.9 66.1 64.5 27.5 28.3 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 94 6 100 30.1 30.1 29.3 0.1 56.2 54.9 28.4 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 98 2 100 30.0 30.1 27.7 0.1 54.1 53.2 29.0 29.9 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 29.9 30.3 31.3 2.0 75.3 74.2 27.3 28.4 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 27.7 27.7 25.9 0.3 59.1 57.9 26.7 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 29.7 29.4 30.8 1.1 65.5 64.8 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 97 3 100 23.3 23.5 23.6 0.1 55.2 54.4 23.0 23.2 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 29.3 29.7 30.0 0.6 63.2 60.7 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 30.4 30.8 30.8 1.5 71.5 69.7 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 29.8 29.5 30.4 0.9 64.6 64.0 27.4 28.5 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 28.3 29.1 28.6 0.7 64.2 62.3 27.2 28.1 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 29.4 29.9 29.0 0.7 62.9 61.7 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 98 2 100 29.1 29.2 26.3 -0.1 52.6 51.6 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 29.9 30.3 30.0 1.2 68.7 66.8 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 96 4 100 30.0 30.1 27.6 -0.1 51.4 51.0 28.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 23.0 23.1 25.2 0.4 60.1 59.0 21.9 22.8 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.0 31.2 1.4 68.6 67.7 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------