***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 15.8 15.9 18.8 1.2 79.6 77.0 14.6 15.2 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 15.7 16.0 18.7 1.3 79.6 78.7 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 17.9 18.1 18.8 1.0 76.5 75.3 16.6 17.1 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 13.4 13.6 16.1 0.8 72.4 71.8 12.0 12.4 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.0 16.1 0.6 69.9 68.5 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 12.8 12.9 13.7 0.4 63.0 62.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 15.8 15.9 18.9 1.3 80.1 78.5 14.6 15.0 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.7 13.6 0.5 67.8 65.6 7.6 8.4 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.3 16.1 0.6 71.6 69.3 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.3 14.5 0.6 69.9 67.6 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 14.7 14.5 15.5 0.5 67.1 66.1 13.7 14.3 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.1 14.5 0.5 67.4 66.0 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 13.7 13.9 14.0 0.3 59.3 59.8 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.2 16.1 0.8 74.1 72.8 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.7 17.5 0.8 72.4 71.5 15.3 16.0 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.6 14.9 0.5 63.6 63.5 14.6 15.0 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 16.2 16.5 18.5 1.4 83.7 80.8 15.0 15.5 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.7 13.9 13.8 0.6 72.1 70.5 12.2 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 15.6 15.8 18.6 1.1 78.0 76.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 9.5 9.4 11.6 0.5 67.7 65.9 8.7 9.0 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.0 17.5 0.6 70.2 68.8 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 15.1 15.3 18.4 1.2 79.9 78.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 15.0 15.1 18.3 1.0 78.0 75.8 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 15.6 15.6 16.0 0.8 74.8 73.2 14.3 15.0 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.4 17.4 0.9 73.6 72.1 14.4 14.7 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 14.0 14.3 13.7 0.5 64.7 63.7 13.2 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 15.6 15.7 18.1 1.1 77.0 75.3 14.6 14.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 14.0 14.0 16.2 0.6 68.6 67.7 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.2 13.1 0.6 71.5 69.6 11.8 12.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 16.0 16.2 18.9 1.2 79.1 77.8 14.6 15.3 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------